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Read SKILL.md from the extracted folder and install it by following the included instructions. Then review README.md for any prerequisites, environment setup, or post-install checks. Tell me what you changed and call out any manual steps you could not complete." }, { "label": "Upgrade existing", "body": "I downloaded an updated skill package from Yavira. Read SKILL.md from the extracted folder, compare it with my current installation, and upgrade it while preserving any custom configuration unless the package docs explicitly say otherwise. Then review README.md for any prerequisites, environment setup, or post-install checks. Summarize what changed and any follow-up checks I should run." } ] }, "documentation": { "source": "clawhub", "primaryDoc": "SKILL.md", "sections": [ { "title": "Strategic Thinking & Mental Models Engine", "body": "The comprehensive decision-making methodology for founders, operators, investors, and leaders. 50+ mental models organized by when to use them, with templates and scoring systems." }, { "title": "Quick Start — /decide", "body": "When the user says \"help me decide\" or \"analyze this decision\":\n\nAsk: What's the decision? (one sentence)\nAsk: What type? (business / investment / hiring / product / personal / technical)\nAsk: Reversibility? (easy to undo / hard to undo / permanent)\nAsk: Time pressure? (minutes / days / weeks / no deadline)\nSelect the right framework(s) from the catalog below\nWalk through step-by-step\nScore using the Decision Quality Rubric (Phase 10)\nOutput a Decision Record (Phase 11)" }, { "title": "/8 — Quick Decision Health Check", "body": "Score the current decision process (1-5 each):\n\nDimensionScoreSignalProblem clarity_ /5Can you state the decision in one sentence?Options explored_ /5Have you considered 3+ alternatives including \"do nothing\"?Evidence quality_ /5Data-backed or gut feeling?Bias awareness_ /5Have you actively looked for disconfirming evidence?Reversibility mapped_ /5Do you know the cost of being wrong?Stakeholders consulted_ /5Has anyone challenged this?Second-order effects_ /5What happens AFTER this decision plays out?Time-appropriateness_ /5Are you spending the right amount of time on this?\n\n≥32: Strong process — proceed with confidence\n24-31: Decent — address weak dimensions before committing\n16-23: Gaps — slow down and fill them\n≤15: Stop — you're about to wing a consequential decision" }, { "title": "Phase 1: Decision Classification", "body": "Not all decisions deserve the same process. Classify first." }, { "title": "Type 1 vs Type 2 (Bezos Framework)", "body": "Type 1 (One-Way Door)Type 2 (Two-Way Door)ReversibilityIrreversible or very costly to reverseEasily reversibleProcessFull analysis, multiple perspectives, sleep on itDecide fast, iterate, don't overthinkWho decidesSenior person or groupIndividual closest to the informationTime budgetHours to weeksMinutes to hoursExamplesAcquisition, firing someone, pricing model, market entryFeature priority, tool selection, meeting format, hiring channel\n\nThe #1 mistake: Treating Type 2 decisions like Type 1. This creates organizational paralysis. Speed on Type 2 decisions is a competitive advantage." }, { "title": "Consequence Mapping", "body": "Before choosing a framework, map consequences:\n\ndecision: \"[What you're deciding]\"\ntype: 1 | 2\nreversibility_cost: \"$X / Y hours / Z reputation damage\"\nupside_if_right: \"[Best realistic outcome]\"\ndownside_if_wrong: \"[Worst realistic outcome]\"\ntime_to_know: \"[When will you know if this was right?]\"\nasymmetry: \"positive | negative | symmetric\"\n# positive = upside >> downside (bet freely)\n# negative = downside >> upside (be cautious)\n# symmetric = roughly equal (use expected value)" }, { "title": "Phase 2: First Principles Thinking", "body": "Before reaching for frameworks, strip the problem to fundamentals." }, { "title": "The 5 Whys (Root Cause)", "body": "Don't solve symptoms. Ask \"Why?\" five times:\n\nWhy are we losing customers? → They churn after month 3.\nWhy month 3? → That's when the free premium features expire.\nWhy do they leave when features expire? → They haven't built habits around core features.\nWhy haven't they built habits? → Onboarding doesn't guide them to sticky features.\nWhy doesn't onboarding cover this? → It focuses on setup, not value realization.\n\nRoot cause: Onboarding design, not pricing or product gaps." }, { "title": "Inversion (Jacobi Method)", "body": "Instead of \"How do I succeed?\", ask \"How would I guarantee failure?\"\n\nTemplate:\n\nGoal: [What you want to achieve]\n\nHow to guarantee failure:\n1. [Anti-pattern 1]\n2. [Anti-pattern 2]\n3. [Anti-pattern 3]\n4. [Anti-pattern 4]\n5. [Anti-pattern 5]\n\nTherefore, avoid:\n1. [Inverted actionable rule]\n2. [Inverted actionable rule]\n3. [Inverted actionable rule]" }, { "title": "Regret Minimization (Bezos)", "body": "For life-altering Type 1 decisions:\n\n\"Project yourself to age 80. Which choice minimizes regret?\"\n\nUse when:\n\nCareer changes (leave job to start company?)\nMajor financial commitments\nRelationship decisions\nThe analytical frameworks feel inadequate because values are at stake" }, { "title": "3.1 — Strategy & Business", "body": "Porter's Five Forces (Industry Attractiveness)\n\nScore each 1-5 (1 = favorable, 5 = threatening):\n\nForceScoreEvidenceThreat of new entrants_ /5Barriers to entry? Capital requirements? Network effects?Supplier power_ /5Few suppliers? Switching costs? Unique inputs?Buyer power_ /5Few buyers? Price sensitive? Easy to switch?Threat of substitutes_ /5Alternative solutions? Different categories solving same job?Competitive rivalry_ /5Many competitors? Slow growth? High fixed costs?Industry Score_ /25≤10 = attractive, 11-17 = moderate, ≥18 = difficult\n\nMoat Assessment (Competitive Advantage)\n\nScore each dimension 0-10:\n\nMoat TypeScoreEvidenceDurability (years)Network effects_ /10Each user makes product more valuable for others?Switching costs_ /10Pain of leaving? Data lock-in? Learning curve?Brand_ /10Premium pricing power? Trust? Recognition?Scale economies_ /10Cost advantages that grow with size?Proprietary tech/data_ /10Patents? Unique datasets? Trade secrets?Regulatory_ /10Licenses? Compliance barriers? Government relationships?Distribution_ /10Exclusive channels? Embedded in workflows?Counter-positioning_ /10Incumbent can't copy without hurting their core business?Total Moat_ /80≥50 = fortress, 30-49 = solid, 15-29 = narrow, <15 = no moat\n\nOODA Loop (Speed Advantage)\n\nFor competitive situations where speed matters:\n\nObserve: What's happening? Raw data, signals, changes.\nOrient: What does it mean? Context, mental models, cultural factors.\nDecide: What will we do? Select action from options.\nAct: Execute. Then observe again.\n\nKey insight: The winner isn't who has the best strategy — it's who cycles through OODA faster. If you can observe and orient faster than competitors, you'll always be inside their decision loop.\n\nWardley Mapping (Strategic Positioning)\n\nMap components by:\n\nY-axis: Visibility to user (top = visible, bottom = invisible)\nX-axis: Evolution stage: Genesis → Custom → Product → Commodity\n\nRules:\n\nBuild what's in Genesis/Custom (your differentiation)\nBuy what's in Product/Commodity (don't reinvent wheels)\nWatch for components about to shift stages (opportunity/threat)" }, { "title": "3.2 — Investment & Financial", "body": "Expected Value Calculation\n\nFor any bet or investment:\n\nEV = (Probability of Win × Win Amount) - (Probability of Loss × Loss Amount)\n\nExample:\n- 30% chance of winning $100,000\n- 70% chance of losing $20,000\n- EV = (0.30 × $100,000) - (0.70 × $20,000) = $30,000 - $14,000 = +$16,000\n\nDecision: Positive EV → take the bet (if you can afford the loss)\n\nKelly Criterion (optimal bet sizing):\n\nKelly % = (bp - q) / b\nWhere:\n b = odds received (win/loss ratio)\n p = probability of winning\n q = probability of losing (1 - p)\n\nExample: 60% win rate, 2:1 payout\nKelly = (2 × 0.6 - 0.4) / 2 = 0.4 = 40%\nHalf-Kelly (safer): 20% of bankroll\n\nRule: Never bet full Kelly. Half-Kelly or quarter-Kelly in practice.\n\nMargin of Safety (Graham/Buffett)\n\nintrinsic_value: \"$X (your best estimate)\"\ncurrent_price: \"$Y\"\nmargin_of_safety: \"(X - Y) / X × 100%\"\n# ≥30% for stable businesses\n# ≥50% for uncertain/cyclical\n# ≥70% for speculative/turnarounds\n\nApplication beyond investing:\n\nHiring: Can this person do 30% more than the role requires?\nTimelines: Add 50% buffer to estimates\nRevenue projections: Plan for 70% of optimistic scenario\nServer capacity: Provision 2x expected peak\n\nAsymmetric Risk/Reward\n\nThe best decisions have capped downside and uncapped upside:\n\nBet TypeDownsideUpsideActionAsymmetric positiveSmall, known lossLarge, open-ended gainTake aggressivelySymmetricEqual loss and gainEqual loss and gainTake only if +EVAsymmetric negativeLarge, open-ended lossSmall, known gainAvoid or hedge\n\nExamples of asymmetric positive bets:\n\nAngel investing ($5K loss max, 100x upside possible)\nContent creation (time investment, infinite distribution upside)\nLearning a skill (months invested, decades of returns)\nCold outreach (rejection cost = 0, deal value = $$$)" }, { "title": "3.3 — Product & Prioritization", "body": "ICE Scoring (Quick Prioritization)\n\nInitiativeImpact (1-10)Confidence (1-10)Ease (1-10)ICE ScoreFeature A875280Feature B698432Feature C943108\n\nScore = Impact × Confidence × Ease\n\nCalibration:\n\nImpact: Revenue, retention, or growth effect\nConfidence: How sure are you about Impact? (data-backed = 8+, gut = 3-5)\nEase: 10 = hours, 7 = days, 4 = weeks, 1 = months\n\nJobs To Be Done (JTBD)\n\nTemplate:\n\nWhen [situation/trigger],\nI want to [motivation/job],\nSo I can [expected outcome].\n\nFunctional job: [What they're literally trying to do]\nEmotional job: [How they want to feel]\nSocial job: [How they want to be perceived]\n\nInsight: People don't buy products. They hire them to make progress. Understand the job, and the product/feature decisions become obvious.\n\nEisenhower Matrix (Time/Priority)\n\nUrgentNot UrgentImportantDO (crises, deadlines)SCHEDULE (strategy, relationships, health)Not ImportantDELEGATE (interruptions, some emails)ELIMINATE (busywork, most meetings)\n\nKey insight: Most people spend 80% of time in Urgent (both quadrants). Winners spend 80% in Important/Not Urgent (Q2) — that's where compounding happens." }, { "title": "3.4 — Risk & Uncertainty", "body": "Pre-Mortem (Klein)\n\nBefore committing to a plan:\n\n\"Imagine it's 6 months from now. This decision was a disaster. What went wrong?\"\n\nTemplate:\n\ndecision: \"[What we're about to do]\"\npre_mortem_failures:\n - failure: \"[What went wrong]\"\n probability: \"high | medium | low\"\n severity: \"catastrophic | major | minor\"\n prevention: \"[What we'll do to prevent this]\"\n detection: \"[How we'll know early if this is happening]\"\n\nRun with 3+ people independently, then combine. The exercise works because it gives permission to voice concerns that \"positive thinking\" culture suppresses.\n\nScenario Planning (Shell Method)\n\nDon't predict the future. Prepare for multiple futures.\n\nscenarios:\n optimistic:\n name: \"[Descriptive name]\"\n assumptions: [\"[Key assumption 1]\", \"[Key assumption 2]\"]\n probability: \"X%\"\n our_response: \"[Strategy if this happens]\"\n leading_indicators: [\"[Signal 1]\", \"[Signal 2]\"]\n\n base_case:\n name: \"[Descriptive name]\"\n assumptions: [\"[Key assumption 1]\", \"[Key assumption 2]\"]\n probability: \"X%\"\n our_response: \"[Strategy if this happens]\"\n leading_indicators: [\"[Signal 1]\", \"[Signal 2]\"]\n\n pessimistic:\n name: \"[Descriptive name]\"\n assumptions: [\"[Key assumption 1]\", \"[Key assumption 2]\"]\n probability: \"X%\"\n our_response: \"[Strategy if this happens]\"\n leading_indicators: [\"[Signal 1]\", \"[Signal 2]\"]\n\n black_swan:\n name: \"[Descriptive name]\"\n assumptions: [\"[Unlikely but catastrophic event]\"]\n probability: \"<5%\"\n our_response: \"[Survival plan]\"\n hedges: [\"[Protection 1]\", \"[Protection 2]\"]\n\nRule: If your plan only works in one scenario, it's not a plan — it's a prayer.\n\nAntifragility Assessment (Taleb)\n\nScore your system/business/portfolio:\n\nDimensionFragile (-2 to 0)Robust (0)Antifragile (0 to +2)Revenue concentration1 client = 80% revenueDiversified, equalGets stronger with market chaosOperational dependenciesSingle point of failureRedundantFailures trigger improvementsFinancial structureLeveraged, thin marginsCash reserves, no debtOptionality, cash to deploy in downturnsKnowledge/IPKey-person dependentDocumented, distributedLearning system that compoundsMarket positionCommodity, price-takerDifferentiatedBenefits from competitor mistakes\n\nTotal: ≥4 = antifragile, 0 = robust, ≤-4 = fragile (fix immediately)" }, { "title": "3.5 — People & Organizational", "body": "Circle of Competence (Munger)\n\nBefore any decision in a domain:\n\nDomain: [Area of decision]\n\nInside my circle:\n- [What I genuinely understand from experience]\n- [Where I have real data and pattern recognition]\n- [Decisions I've made successfully before in this space]\n\nEdge of my circle:\n- [What I know I don't know]\n- [Where I'd need expert input]\n\nOutside my circle:\n- [What I'm completely unfamiliar with]\n- [Where I'd be guessing]\n\nDecision: Am I inside my circle for THIS specific decision?\nIf no → find someone who is, or do the homework first.\n\nHanlon's Razor + Steel Man\n\nBefore reacting to someone's behavior or proposal:\n\nHanlon's Razor: \"Never attribute to malice what is adequately explained by incompetence\" (or ignorance, busy-ness, different priorities)\nSteel Man: Before arguing against a position, articulate the STRONGEST version of it. If you can't steel-man it, you don't understand it enough to disagree.\n\nSecond-Order Thinking\n\nEvery decision has consequences (1st order). Those consequences have consequences (2nd order).\n\nTemplate:\n\nDecision: [What we're doing]\n\n1st order effects (immediate):\n- [Direct result 1]\n- [Direct result 2]\n\n2nd order effects (weeks/months later):\n- [Consequence of result 1] → [Further consequence]\n- [Consequence of result 2] → [Further consequence]\n\n3rd order effects (months/years later):\n- [Systemic change 1]\n- [Systemic change 2]\n\nCounter-intuitive insight: [What becomes clear only at 2nd/3rd order]\n\nClassic examples:\n\nLowering prices (1st: more customers → 2nd: competitors match → 3rd: margin compression industry-wide)\nRemote work (1st: flexibility → 2nd: global talent pool → 3rd: global competition for your job)\nFiring quickly (1st: team relief → 2nd: hiring bar rises → 3rd: culture of accountability)" }, { "title": "3.6 — Negotiation & Persuasion", "body": "BATNA Analysis (Fisher/Ury)\n\nBefore any negotiation:\n\nmy_batna: \"[Best Alternative To Negotiated Agreement — what I do if we don't agree]\"\nmy_batna_value: \"$X or equivalent\"\ntheir_batna: \"[Their best alternative]\"\ntheir_batna_value: \"$Y or equivalent\"\nzopa: \"[Zone Of Possible Agreement: range between our walk-away points]\"\nmy_reservation_price: \"[Minimum I'd accept]\"\nmy_aspiration: \"[What I actually want]\"\ntheir_likely_reservation: \"[Best guess at their minimum]\"\n\npower_assessment: \"I have more power | balanced | they have more power\"\n# Whoever has the better BATNA has the power\n\nCialdini's 6 Principles (Influence Audit)\n\nFor any persuasion situation, check which levers apply:\n\nPrincipleApplicationYour MoveReciprocityGive first, then ask[What value can you provide upfront?]Commitment/ConsistencyGet small yeses first[What's the micro-commitment?]Social proofOthers are doing it[Who else has done this successfully?]AuthorityExpert endorsement[What credentials or evidence establish authority?]LikingBuild rapport first[What genuine connection exists?]ScarcityLimited availability[What's genuinely scarce — time, spots, pricing?]" }, { "title": "3.7 — Technical & Engineering", "body": "Build vs Buy Decision Matrix\n\nCriterionWeightBuildBuyCore differentiator?5If yes: +5If no: +5Time to market4Score 1-5Score 1-5Long-term cost (3yr)4Score 1-5Score 1-5Customization needed3Score 1-5Score 1-5Team capability3Score 1-5Score 1-5Maintenance burden3Score 1-5Score 1-5Vendor risk2N/A (0)Score 1-5Integration complexity2Score 1-5Score 1-5\n\nShortcut: If it's your core differentiator → build. If it's commodity → buy. Everything else → this matrix.\n\nReversibility-First Architecture\n\nDesign decisions by reversibility:\n\nReversibilityExamplesApproachEasy (hours)Feature flags, config, UI copyJust do it. Iterate.Medium (days-weeks)API design, database indexes, tool choicesLight analysis, time-box to 1 dayHard (months)Database engine, programming language, cloud providerFull evaluation, prototype, team inputPermanentPublic API contracts, data deletion, legal agreementsMaximum rigor, external review, sleep on it" }, { "title": "Phase 4: Cognitive Bias Defense System", "body": "Biases are the #1 threat to decision quality. Active defense required.\n\nBiasWhat It DoesDefenseConfirmation biasSeek info that confirms what you already believeAssign someone to argue the opposite. Search for \"why [your thesis] is wrong\"AnchoringFirst number you hear dominates your estimateGenerate your own estimate BEFORE looking at anyone else'sSunk cost fallacyContinue because you've already investedAsk: \"If I were starting fresh today, would I begin this?\"Survivorship biasStudy winners, ignore the deadAsk: \"How many tried this and failed? What did they have in common?\"Dunning-KrugerOverconfidence in areas of low competenceCheck: Am I inside my circle of competence?Recency biasOverweight recent eventsLook at 5-10 year base rates, not last quarterStatus quo biasPrefer current state even when suboptimalEvaluate \"do nothing\" as an active choice with its own costsGroupthinkAgree with the room to avoid conflictWrite opinions independently BEFORE discussing. Use anonymous voting.Availability heuristicJudge probability by how easily examples come to mindCheck actual data. Plane crashes feel common because they're memorable.Loss aversionFeel losses 2x more than equivalent gainsReframe: \"What do I gain by NOT doing this?\"Narrative fallacyConstruct stories to explain random eventsAsk: \"Is this a pattern or am I connecting random dots?\"Planning fallacyUnderestimate time/cost for tasksUse reference class forecasting: how long did SIMILAR projects take others?" }, { "title": "Daily Bias Checklist (Before Major Decisions)", "body": "Have I actively sought disconfirming evidence?\n Am I anchored to someone else's number/frame?\n Am I continuing because of sunk costs?\n Would I make this same choice starting from zero?\n Have I considered the base rate, not just my situation?\n Has someone challenged this decision?" }, { "title": "Confidence Calibration", "body": "Before acting on any estimate:\n\nYour ConfidenceWhat It Should MeanCalibration Test50%Coin flip — could go either wayWould you bet your own money at even odds?70%More likely than not, but real chance of being wrongWould you bet 2:1?90%Very confident, would be surprised if wrongWould you bet 9:1?95%Extremely confidentWould you bet 19:1?99%Near certainHave you been wrong at \"99% confidence\" before? (You have.)\n\nRule: Most people are overconfident. If you think you're 90% sure, you're probably 70% sure. Adjust down." }, { "title": "Information Value Assessment", "body": "Before spending time/money gathering more data:\n\nDecision to make: [X]\nCurrent best guess: [Y]\nCurrent confidence: [Z%]\n\nIf I gather [this information]:\n- Cost: [$X / Y hours]\n- Would it change my decision? [yes / maybe / probably not]\n- By how much would confidence increase? [+5% / +15% / +30%]\n\nValue of information = (confidence gain × decision stakes) - gathering cost\n\nRule: Don't research a $1,000 decision for 40 hours. Match effort to stakes." }, { "title": "When to Decide (Timing Framework)", "body": "SituationOptimal Decision TimeWhyInformation depreciates quicklyImmediately (minutes)Waiting destroys the optionEasy to reverseQuickly (hours)Cost of being wrong < cost of delayModerate stakes, some data70% information ruleAt 70% confidence, decide. Waiting for 95% means you're too late.High stakes, irreversibleTake available time (days-weeks)Use it all. Sleep on it. Get perspectives.Emotional decisionWait minimum 24 hoursEmotions are data, not directives. Let them settle." }, { "title": "Structured Disagreement Protocol", "body": "For team/partner decisions where people disagree:\n\nIndependent write-up: Each person writes their recommendation and reasoning (5 min, no discussion)\nShare simultaneously: Everyone reveals at once (prevents anchoring)\nSteel man opposition: Each person must articulate the best version of the opposing view\nIdentify cruxes: What's the ONE factual question where if resolved, you'd change your mind?\nResolve or decide: If crux is resolvable → get the data. If not → whoever has the best BATNA decides, or the person closest to the information decides." }, { "title": "RACI for Decisions", "body": "RoleDefinitionRuleR — ResponsibleDoes the analysis, prepares recommendationMax 2 peopleA — AccountableMakes the final callExactly 1 personC — ConsultedProvides input before decisionKeep small (3-5)I — InformedTold after decision is madeEveryone affected\n\nCommon failure: No clear A. If two people think they're the decider, no decision gets made." }, { "title": "Compounding Mental Model", "body": "Most people think linearly. Compounding is the most powerful force:\n\nLinear: 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 4 (after 4 periods)\nCompounding: 1 × 1.1 × 1.1 × 1.1 × 1.1 = 1.46 (after 4 periods)\n\nBut after 50 periods:\nLinear: 50\nCompounding: 117.39\n\nRule of 72: Years to double = 72 / growth rate%\n- 10% growth → doubles in 7.2 years\n- 20% growth → doubles in 3.6 years\n- 1% daily improvement → 37x in one year\n\nApplication: Every decision should be evaluated for its compounding potential. A decision that creates a 1% improvement to a daily process is worth more than a one-time 50% improvement to an annual process." }, { "title": "Leverage Points (Meadows)", "body": "Where to intervene in a system, ranked by effectiveness:\n\nParadigms (most powerful) — Change the mindset/goals of the system\nGoals — What the system is optimizing for\nRules — Incentives, constraints, punishments\nInformation flows — Who knows what, when\nFeedback loops — Speed and accuracy of response\nStructure — How components connect\nParameters (least powerful) — Numbers, budgets, quotas\n\nInsight: Most people intervene at #7 (adjust the budget). The highest-leverage interventions are at #1-3 (change what we're optimizing for)." }, { "title": "The Energy Audit", "body": "Not all decisions need the same energy:\n\nhigh_energy_decisions: # Use frameworks, sleep on it\n - Career changes\n - Major financial commitments (>10% of net worth)\n - Hiring/firing\n - Market entry/exit\n - Relationship commitments\n\nmedium_energy_decisions: # 30-min analysis, then decide\n - Quarterly priorities\n - Tool/vendor selection\n - Pricing adjustments\n - Content strategy\n\nlow_energy_decisions: # Decide in <5 min or automate\n - What to eat, wear, read\n - Meeting attendance\n - Social media responses\n - Routine purchases\n\nrule: \"Match decision energy to decision stakes. Most people overthink low-energy decisions and underthink high-energy ones.\"" }, { "title": "Default Rules (Eliminate Decision Fatigue)", "body": "Create personal defaults so you don't waste energy:\n\ndefaults:\n new_meeting_request: \"Default NO unless clearly advances top 3 priorities\"\n price_negotiation: \"Never discount more than 15% — offer value instead\"\n new_project: \"Default NO unless it replaces something on current list\"\n email_response: \"Batch 2x/day. Respond in ≤3 sentences or schedule a call\"\n investment: \"Default index fund. Active only with genuine edge + margin of safety\"\n delegation: \"If someone can do it 80% as well, delegate\"\n saying_yes: \"If it's not a HELL YES, it's a no\"" }, { "title": "Phase 9: Decision Frameworks by Situation", "body": "Quick reference — which framework for which situation:\n\nSituationPrimary FrameworkSupporting ModelShould we enter this market?Porter's Five Forces + Moat AssessmentScenario PlanningShould I take this job/opportunity?Regret Minimization + Circle of CompetenceAsymmetric RiskWhich feature to build next?ICE Scoring + JTBD2nd Order ThinkingShould we invest/bet on X?Expected Value + Margin of SafetyPre-MortemHow to price our product?See afrexai-pricing-strategyCompetitive PositioningHiring decision?See afrexai-interview-architectCircle of CompetenceHow to negotiate this deal?BATNA + CialdiniSee afrexai-negotiation-masteryBuild or buy this component?Build vs Buy MatrixReversibility AssessmentTeam disagrees on directionStructured Disagreement ProtocolPre-MortemI'm overwhelmed with optionsEisenhower Matrix + Default RulesEnergy AuditBusiness feels fragileAntifragility AssessmentScenario PlanningCompetitor making movesOODA Loop + See afrexai-competitive-intelWardley MappingSomething failed, now what?5 Whys + InversionSunk Cost checkBig life decisionRegret Minimization + Second-OrderSleep on it (24h rule)" }, { "title": "Phase 10: Decision Quality Rubric", "body": "Score any decision AFTER making it (or retrospectively):\n\nDimensionWeightScore (0-10)WeightedProblem definition clarity15%__Options explored (≥3, incl. \"do nothing\")15%__Evidence quality (data vs. gut)15%__Bias mitigation (actively countered?)15%__Stakeholder input (right people consulted?)10%__Second-order effects considered10%__Reversibility & downside mapped10%__Time-appropriate process10%__Total100%_ /100\n\n≥80: Excellent process — outcome is in fortune's hands, not yours\n60-79: Good — minor gaps but fundamentally sound\n40-59: Mediocre — important dimensions skipped\n≤39: Poor — outcome is a coin flip regardless of luck\n\nCritical insight: Judge decisions by PROCESS quality, not outcomes. A good process can produce bad outcomes (variance). A bad process that produces good outcomes is dangerous — it teaches bad habits." }, { "title": "Phase 11: Decision Record Template", "body": "Document every significant decision:\n\ndecision_record:\n id: \"DR-[YYYY-MM-DD]-[number]\"\n date: \"YYYY-MM-DD\"\n decision: \"[One sentence — what we decided]\"\n type: \"1 | 2\"\n context: \"[Why this decision was needed now]\"\n options_considered:\n - option: \"[Option A]\"\n pros: [\"...\", \"...\"]\n cons: [\"...\", \"...\"]\n - option: \"[Option B]\"\n pros: [\"...\", \"...\"]\n cons: [\"...\", \"...\"]\n - option: \"Do nothing\"\n pros: [\"...\", \"...\"]\n cons: [\"...\", \"...\"]\n decision_rationale: \"[Why we chose this option]\"\n frameworks_used: [\"[Framework 1]\", \"[Framework 2]\"]\n key_assumptions: [\"[Assumption 1]\", \"[Assumption 2]\"]\n risks_accepted: [\"[Risk 1]\", \"[Risk 2]\"]\n success_criteria: \"[How we'll know this was right]\"\n review_date: \"YYYY-MM-DD (when to evaluate)\"\n quality_score: \"X/100 (Phase 10 rubric)\"\n decided_by: \"[Name]\"\n consulted: [\"[Name 1]\", \"[Name 2]\"]\n \n # Fill in at review_date:\n outcome: \"[What actually happened]\"\n lessons: \"[What we learned]\"\n would_decide_differently: \"yes | no\"\n why: \"[If yes, what would we change about the PROCESS?]\"" }, { "title": "Barbell Strategy (Taleb)", "body": "Combine extreme safety with extreme risk. Avoid the middle.\n\nPortfolio: 85-90% ultra-safe (treasuries, cash, index) + 10-15% high-risk/high-reward (startups, crypto, moonshots)\nTime: 80% predictable deep work + 20% wild exploration/experimentation\nProducts: Cash cow product (boring, reliable) + speculative bets (innovative, might fail)\nCareer: Stable income source + asymmetric side projects\n\nWhy no middle: The \"medium risk\" zone gives you medium returns with hidden tail risk. Better to KNOW you're safe on one side and gambling on the other." }, { "title": "Lindy Effect", "body": "The longer something has survived, the longer it will likely survive.\n\nApplications:\n\nBooks: A 100-year-old book is more likely relevant in 10 years than a 1-year-old book\nTechnologies: SQL (50 years) will outlast this year's hot framework\nBusiness models: Subscription model (centuries old as concept) > novel monetization\nAdvice: Wisdom from 2,000 years ago (Stoics, Sun Tzu) > last week's Twitter thread" }, { "title": "Via Negativa (Subtract, Don't Add)", "body": "Often the best decision is what to REMOVE, not what to add:\n\nRemove a feature (focus)\nRemove a meeting (time)\nRemove a client (sanity, team morale)\nRemove a goal (clarity)\nRemove a bad habit (energy)\nRemove complexity (reliability)\n\nTemplate: \"What's the ONE thing I could eliminate that would improve everything else?\"" }, { "title": "Opportunity Cost Consciousness", "body": "Every yes is a no to something else:\n\nIf I do X:\n- Direct benefit: [value gained]\n- Time cost: [hours/days/weeks]\n- Best alternative use of that time: [what I'm saying no to]\n- Opportunity cost: [value of best alternative forgone]\n\nNet value = Direct benefit - Opportunity cost\n\nIf net value is negative, you're destroying value by saying yes — even though it \"feels productive.\"" }, { "title": "10 Decision-Making Commandments", "body": "Classify before analyzing. Type 1 or Type 2? Match process to stakes.\n\"Do nothing\" is always an option. Evaluate it explicitly.\nSeek disconfirming evidence. The moment you like an idea, hunt for why it's wrong.\nSeparate process from outcome. Good process, bad outcome = fine. Bad process, good outcome = lucky.\nTime-box decisions. Set a deadline. Perfectionism is a form of procrastination.\nWrite it down. Unwritten decisions can't be reviewed, learned from, or challenged.\nOne decider. Every decision needs exactly one person who makes the final call.\nSleep on Type 1 decisions. Your brain processes during sleep. Use it.\nReview decisions. Quarterly, look at your decision records. What patterns emerge?\nCompound decision quality. Each good decision process makes the next one better. This is the real edge." }, { "title": "10 Common Decision Mistakes", "body": "#MistakeFix1Deciding too slowly on Type 2 decisionsSet a timer. If reversible, decide now.2Never writing down assumptionsEvery decision has assumptions. Write them. Test them.3Asking for consensus instead of inputConsensus = lowest common denominator. Get input, then one person decides.4Optimizing for one variableLife is multi-variable. Use weighted scoring.5Ignoring opportunity cost\"This is good\" isn't enough. \"This is better than alternatives\" is the bar.6Deciding when emotional24-hour rule for anything you'd regret.7Copying without context\"Amazon does X\" means nothing if you're not Amazon. Understand WHY they do X.8Analysis paralysis on small decisionsAutomate (defaults) or delegate anything under $500/2 hours.9Never reviewing past decisionsSame mistakes on repeat. Quarterly decision reviews = compounding improvement.10Conflating confidence with competenceLoud ≠ right. Data ≠ understanding. Check circle of competence." }, { "title": "Natural Language Commands", "body": "\"Help me decide [X]\" → Full decision walkthrough (Quick Start)\n\"Score this decision\" → Decision Quality Rubric (Phase 10)\n\"Pre-mortem [plan]\" → Pre-mortem exercise (Phase 4)\n\"Is this inside my circle?\" → Circle of Competence check\n\"Bias check\" → Daily Bias Checklist\n\"Expected value of [bet]\" → EV calculation\n\"Map the second-order effects\" → Second-order thinking template\n\"BATNA analysis for [negotiation]\" → Full BATNA template\n\"Rate this market\" → Porter's Five Forces scoring\n\"How strong is the moat?\" → Moat Assessment\n\"Which framework should I use?\" → Phase 9 situation lookup\n\"Write a decision record\" → DR template (Phase 11)" } ], "body": "Strategic Thinking & Mental Models Engine\n\nThe comprehensive decision-making methodology for founders, operators, investors, and leaders. 50+ mental models organized by when to use them, with templates and scoring systems.\n\nQuick Start — /decide\n\nWhen the user says \"help me decide\" or \"analyze this decision\":\n\nAsk: What's the decision? (one sentence)\nAsk: What type? (business / investment / hiring / product / personal / technical)\nAsk: Reversibility? (easy to undo / hard to undo / permanent)\nAsk: Time pressure? (minutes / days / weeks / no deadline)\nSelect the right framework(s) from the catalog below\nWalk through step-by-step\nScore using the Decision Quality Rubric (Phase 10)\nOutput a Decision Record (Phase 11)\n/8 — Quick Decision Health Check\n\nScore the current decision process (1-5 each):\n\nDimension\tScore\tSignal\nProblem clarity\t_ /5\tCan you state the decision in one sentence?\nOptions explored\t_ /5\tHave you considered 3+ alternatives including \"do nothing\"?\nEvidence quality\t_ /5\tData-backed or gut feeling?\nBias awareness\t_ /5\tHave you actively looked for disconfirming evidence?\nReversibility mapped\t_ /5\tDo you know the cost of being wrong?\nStakeholders consulted\t_ /5\tHas anyone challenged this?\nSecond-order effects\t_ /5\tWhat happens AFTER this decision plays out?\nTime-appropriateness\t_ /5\tAre you spending the right amount of time on this?\n\n≥32: Strong process — proceed with confidence 24-31: Decent — address weak dimensions before committing 16-23: Gaps — slow down and fill them ≤15: Stop — you're about to wing a consequential decision\n\nPhase 1: Decision Classification\n\nNot all decisions deserve the same process. Classify first.\n\nType 1 vs Type 2 (Bezos Framework)\n\tType 1 (One-Way Door)\tType 2 (Two-Way Door)\nReversibility\tIrreversible or very costly to reverse\tEasily reversible\nProcess\tFull analysis, multiple perspectives, sleep on it\tDecide fast, iterate, don't overthink\nWho decides\tSenior person or group\tIndividual closest to the information\nTime budget\tHours to weeks\tMinutes to hours\nExamples\tAcquisition, firing someone, pricing model, market entry\tFeature priority, tool selection, meeting format, hiring channel\n\nThe #1 mistake: Treating Type 2 decisions like Type 1. This creates organizational paralysis. Speed on Type 2 decisions is a competitive advantage.\n\nConsequence Mapping\n\nBefore choosing a framework, map consequences:\n\ndecision: \"[What you're deciding]\"\ntype: 1 | 2\nreversibility_cost: \"$X / Y hours / Z reputation damage\"\nupside_if_right: \"[Best realistic outcome]\"\ndownside_if_wrong: \"[Worst realistic outcome]\"\ntime_to_know: \"[When will you know if this was right?]\"\nasymmetry: \"positive | negative | symmetric\"\n# positive = upside >> downside (bet freely)\n# negative = downside >> upside (be cautious)\n# symmetric = roughly equal (use expected value)\n\nPhase 2: First Principles Thinking\n\nBefore reaching for frameworks, strip the problem to fundamentals.\n\nThe 5 Whys (Root Cause)\n\nDon't solve symptoms. Ask \"Why?\" five times:\n\nWhy are we losing customers? → They churn after month 3.\nWhy month 3? → That's when the free premium features expire.\nWhy do they leave when features expire? → They haven't built habits around core features.\nWhy haven't they built habits? → Onboarding doesn't guide them to sticky features.\nWhy doesn't onboarding cover this? → It focuses on setup, not value realization.\n\nRoot cause: Onboarding design, not pricing or product gaps.\n\nInversion (Jacobi Method)\n\nInstead of \"How do I succeed?\", ask \"How would I guarantee failure?\"\n\nTemplate:\n\nGoal: [What you want to achieve]\n\nHow to guarantee failure:\n1. [Anti-pattern 1]\n2. [Anti-pattern 2]\n3. [Anti-pattern 3]\n4. [Anti-pattern 4]\n5. [Anti-pattern 5]\n\nTherefore, avoid:\n1. [Inverted actionable rule]\n2. [Inverted actionable rule]\n3. [Inverted actionable rule]\n\nRegret Minimization (Bezos)\n\nFor life-altering Type 1 decisions:\n\n\"Project yourself to age 80. Which choice minimizes regret?\"\n\nUse when:\n\nCareer changes (leave job to start company?)\nMajor financial commitments\nRelationship decisions\nThe analytical frameworks feel inadequate because values are at stake\nPhase 3: The Core Mental Models Catalog\n3.1 — Strategy & Business\nPorter's Five Forces (Industry Attractiveness)\n\nScore each 1-5 (1 = favorable, 5 = threatening):\n\nForce\tScore\tEvidence\nThreat of new entrants\t_ /5\tBarriers to entry? Capital requirements? Network effects?\nSupplier power\t_ /5\tFew suppliers? Switching costs? Unique inputs?\nBuyer power\t_ /5\tFew buyers? Price sensitive? Easy to switch?\nThreat of substitutes\t_ /5\tAlternative solutions? Different categories solving same job?\nCompetitive rivalry\t_ /5\tMany competitors? Slow growth? High fixed costs?\nIndustry Score\t_ /25\t≤10 = attractive, 11-17 = moderate, ≥18 = difficult\nMoat Assessment (Competitive Advantage)\n\nScore each dimension 0-10:\n\nMoat Type\tScore\tEvidence\tDurability (years)\nNetwork effects\t_ /10\tEach user makes product more valuable for others?\t\nSwitching costs\t_ /10\tPain of leaving? Data lock-in? Learning curve?\t\nBrand\t_ /10\tPremium pricing power? Trust? Recognition?\t\nScale economies\t_ /10\tCost advantages that grow with size?\t\nProprietary tech/data\t_ /10\tPatents? Unique datasets? Trade secrets?\t\nRegulatory\t_ /10\tLicenses? Compliance barriers? Government relationships?\t\nDistribution\t_ /10\tExclusive channels? Embedded in workflows?\t\nCounter-positioning\t_ /10\tIncumbent can't copy without hurting their core business?\t\nTotal Moat\t_ /80\t≥50 = fortress, 30-49 = solid, 15-29 = narrow, <15 = no moat\t\nOODA Loop (Speed Advantage)\n\nFor competitive situations where speed matters:\n\nObserve: What's happening? Raw data, signals, changes.\nOrient: What does it mean? Context, mental models, cultural factors.\nDecide: What will we do? Select action from options.\nAct: Execute. Then observe again.\n\nKey insight: The winner isn't who has the best strategy — it's who cycles through OODA faster. If you can observe and orient faster than competitors, you'll always be inside their decision loop.\n\nWardley Mapping (Strategic Positioning)\n\nMap components by:\n\nY-axis: Visibility to user (top = visible, bottom = invisible)\nX-axis: Evolution stage: Genesis → Custom → Product → Commodity\n\nRules:\n\nBuild what's in Genesis/Custom (your differentiation)\nBuy what's in Product/Commodity (don't reinvent wheels)\nWatch for components about to shift stages (opportunity/threat)\n3.2 — Investment & Financial\nExpected Value Calculation\n\nFor any bet or investment:\n\nEV = (Probability of Win × Win Amount) - (Probability of Loss × Loss Amount)\n\nExample:\n- 30% chance of winning $100,000\n- 70% chance of losing $20,000\n- EV = (0.30 × $100,000) - (0.70 × $20,000) = $30,000 - $14,000 = +$16,000\n\nDecision: Positive EV → take the bet (if you can afford the loss)\n\n\nKelly Criterion (optimal bet sizing):\n\nKelly % = (bp - q) / b\nWhere:\n b = odds received (win/loss ratio)\n p = probability of winning\n q = probability of losing (1 - p)\n\nExample: 60% win rate, 2:1 payout\nKelly = (2 × 0.6 - 0.4) / 2 = 0.4 = 40%\nHalf-Kelly (safer): 20% of bankroll\n\n\nRule: Never bet full Kelly. Half-Kelly or quarter-Kelly in practice.\n\nMargin of Safety (Graham/Buffett)\nintrinsic_value: \"$X (your best estimate)\"\ncurrent_price: \"$Y\"\nmargin_of_safety: \"(X - Y) / X × 100%\"\n# ≥30% for stable businesses\n# ≥50% for uncertain/cyclical\n# ≥70% for speculative/turnarounds\n\n\nApplication beyond investing:\n\nHiring: Can this person do 30% more than the role requires?\nTimelines: Add 50% buffer to estimates\nRevenue projections: Plan for 70% of optimistic scenario\nServer capacity: Provision 2x expected peak\nAsymmetric Risk/Reward\n\nThe best decisions have capped downside and uncapped upside:\n\nBet Type\tDownside\tUpside\tAction\nAsymmetric positive\tSmall, known loss\tLarge, open-ended gain\tTake aggressively\nSymmetric\tEqual loss and gain\tEqual loss and gain\tTake only if +EV\nAsymmetric negative\tLarge, open-ended loss\tSmall, known gain\tAvoid or hedge\n\nExamples of asymmetric positive bets:\n\nAngel investing ($5K loss max, 100x upside possible)\nContent creation (time investment, infinite distribution upside)\nLearning a skill (months invested, decades of returns)\nCold outreach (rejection cost = 0, deal value = $$$)\n3.3 — Product & Prioritization\nICE Scoring (Quick Prioritization)\nInitiative\tImpact (1-10)\tConfidence (1-10)\tEase (1-10)\tICE Score\nFeature A\t8\t7\t5\t280\nFeature B\t6\t9\t8\t432\nFeature C\t9\t4\t3\t108\n\nScore = Impact × Confidence × Ease\n\nCalibration:\n\nImpact: Revenue, retention, or growth effect\nConfidence: How sure are you about Impact? (data-backed = 8+, gut = 3-5)\nEase: 10 = hours, 7 = days, 4 = weeks, 1 = months\nJobs To Be Done (JTBD)\n\nTemplate:\n\nWhen [situation/trigger],\nI want to [motivation/job],\nSo I can [expected outcome].\n\nFunctional job: [What they're literally trying to do]\nEmotional job: [How they want to feel]\nSocial job: [How they want to be perceived]\n\n\nInsight: People don't buy products. They hire them to make progress. Understand the job, and the product/feature decisions become obvious.\n\nEisenhower Matrix (Time/Priority)\n\tUrgent\tNot Urgent\nImportant\tDO (crises, deadlines)\tSCHEDULE (strategy, relationships, health)\nNot Important\tDELEGATE (interruptions, some emails)\tELIMINATE (busywork, most meetings)\n\nKey insight: Most people spend 80% of time in Urgent (both quadrants). Winners spend 80% in Important/Not Urgent (Q2) — that's where compounding happens.\n\n3.4 — Risk & Uncertainty\nPre-Mortem (Klein)\n\nBefore committing to a plan:\n\n\"Imagine it's 6 months from now. This decision was a disaster. What went wrong?\"\n\nTemplate:\n\ndecision: \"[What we're about to do]\"\npre_mortem_failures:\n - failure: \"[What went wrong]\"\n probability: \"high | medium | low\"\n severity: \"catastrophic | major | minor\"\n prevention: \"[What we'll do to prevent this]\"\n detection: \"[How we'll know early if this is happening]\"\n\n\nRun with 3+ people independently, then combine. The exercise works because it gives permission to voice concerns that \"positive thinking\" culture suppresses.\n\nScenario Planning (Shell Method)\n\nDon't predict the future. Prepare for multiple futures.\n\nscenarios:\n optimistic:\n name: \"[Descriptive name]\"\n assumptions: [\"[Key assumption 1]\", \"[Key assumption 2]\"]\n probability: \"X%\"\n our_response: \"[Strategy if this happens]\"\n leading_indicators: [\"[Signal 1]\", \"[Signal 2]\"]\n\n base_case:\n name: \"[Descriptive name]\"\n assumptions: [\"[Key assumption 1]\", \"[Key assumption 2]\"]\n probability: \"X%\"\n our_response: \"[Strategy if this happens]\"\n leading_indicators: [\"[Signal 1]\", \"[Signal 2]\"]\n\n pessimistic:\n name: \"[Descriptive name]\"\n assumptions: [\"[Key assumption 1]\", \"[Key assumption 2]\"]\n probability: \"X%\"\n our_response: \"[Strategy if this happens]\"\n leading_indicators: [\"[Signal 1]\", \"[Signal 2]\"]\n\n black_swan:\n name: \"[Descriptive name]\"\n assumptions: [\"[Unlikely but catastrophic event]\"]\n probability: \"<5%\"\n our_response: \"[Survival plan]\"\n hedges: [\"[Protection 1]\", \"[Protection 2]\"]\n\n\nRule: If your plan only works in one scenario, it's not a plan — it's a prayer.\n\nAntifragility Assessment (Taleb)\n\nScore your system/business/portfolio:\n\nDimension\tFragile (-2 to 0)\tRobust (0)\tAntifragile (0 to +2)\nRevenue concentration\t1 client = 80% revenue\tDiversified, equal\tGets stronger with market chaos\nOperational dependencies\tSingle point of failure\tRedundant\tFailures trigger improvements\nFinancial structure\tLeveraged, thin margins\tCash reserves, no debt\tOptionality, cash to deploy in downturns\nKnowledge/IP\tKey-person dependent\tDocumented, distributed\tLearning system that compounds\nMarket position\tCommodity, price-taker\tDifferentiated\tBenefits from competitor mistakes\n\nTotal: ≥4 = antifragile, 0 = robust, ≤-4 = fragile (fix immediately)\n\n3.5 — People & Organizational\nCircle of Competence (Munger)\n\nBefore any decision in a domain:\n\nDomain: [Area of decision]\n\nInside my circle:\n- [What I genuinely understand from experience]\n- [Where I have real data and pattern recognition]\n- [Decisions I've made successfully before in this space]\n\nEdge of my circle:\n- [What I know I don't know]\n- [Where I'd need expert input]\n\nOutside my circle:\n- [What I'm completely unfamiliar with]\n- [Where I'd be guessing]\n\nDecision: Am I inside my circle for THIS specific decision?\nIf no → find someone who is, or do the homework first.\n\nHanlon's Razor + Steel Man\n\nBefore reacting to someone's behavior or proposal:\n\nHanlon's Razor: \"Never attribute to malice what is adequately explained by incompetence\" (or ignorance, busy-ness, different priorities)\nSteel Man: Before arguing against a position, articulate the STRONGEST version of it. If you can't steel-man it, you don't understand it enough to disagree.\nSecond-Order Thinking\n\nEvery decision has consequences (1st order). Those consequences have consequences (2nd order).\n\nTemplate:\n\nDecision: [What we're doing]\n\n1st order effects (immediate):\n- [Direct result 1]\n- [Direct result 2]\n\n2nd order effects (weeks/months later):\n- [Consequence of result 1] → [Further consequence]\n- [Consequence of result 2] → [Further consequence]\n\n3rd order effects (months/years later):\n- [Systemic change 1]\n- [Systemic change 2]\n\nCounter-intuitive insight: [What becomes clear only at 2nd/3rd order]\n\n\nClassic examples:\n\nLowering prices (1st: more customers → 2nd: competitors match → 3rd: margin compression industry-wide)\nRemote work (1st: flexibility → 2nd: global talent pool → 3rd: global competition for your job)\nFiring quickly (1st: team relief → 2nd: hiring bar rises → 3rd: culture of accountability)\n3.6 — Negotiation & Persuasion\nBATNA Analysis (Fisher/Ury)\n\nBefore any negotiation:\n\nmy_batna: \"[Best Alternative To Negotiated Agreement — what I do if we don't agree]\"\nmy_batna_value: \"$X or equivalent\"\ntheir_batna: \"[Their best alternative]\"\ntheir_batna_value: \"$Y or equivalent\"\nzopa: \"[Zone Of Possible Agreement: range between our walk-away points]\"\nmy_reservation_price: \"[Minimum I'd accept]\"\nmy_aspiration: \"[What I actually want]\"\ntheir_likely_reservation: \"[Best guess at their minimum]\"\n\npower_assessment: \"I have more power | balanced | they have more power\"\n# Whoever has the better BATNA has the power\n\nCialdini's 6 Principles (Influence Audit)\n\nFor any persuasion situation, check which levers apply:\n\nPrinciple\tApplication\tYour Move\nReciprocity\tGive first, then ask\t[What value can you provide upfront?]\nCommitment/Consistency\tGet small yeses first\t[What's the micro-commitment?]\nSocial proof\tOthers are doing it\t[Who else has done this successfully?]\nAuthority\tExpert endorsement\t[What credentials or evidence establish authority?]\nLiking\tBuild rapport first\t[What genuine connection exists?]\nScarcity\tLimited availability\t[What's genuinely scarce — time, spots, pricing?]\n3.7 — Technical & Engineering\nBuild vs Buy Decision Matrix\nCriterion\tWeight\tBuild\tBuy\nCore differentiator?\t5\tIf yes: +5\tIf no: +5\nTime to market\t4\tScore 1-5\tScore 1-5\nLong-term cost (3yr)\t4\tScore 1-5\tScore 1-5\nCustomization needed\t3\tScore 1-5\tScore 1-5\nTeam capability\t3\tScore 1-5\tScore 1-5\nMaintenance burden\t3\tScore 1-5\tScore 1-5\nVendor risk\t2\tN/A (0)\tScore 1-5\nIntegration complexity\t2\tScore 1-5\tScore 1-5\n\nShortcut: If it's your core differentiator → build. If it's commodity → buy. Everything else → this matrix.\n\nReversibility-First Architecture\n\nDesign decisions by reversibility:\n\nReversibility\tExamples\tApproach\nEasy (hours)\tFeature flags, config, UI copy\tJust do it. Iterate.\nMedium (days-weeks)\tAPI design, database indexes, tool choices\tLight analysis, time-box to 1 day\nHard (months)\tDatabase engine, programming language, cloud provider\tFull evaluation, prototype, team input\nPermanent\tPublic API contracts, data deletion, legal agreements\tMaximum rigor, external review, sleep on it\nPhase 4: Cognitive Bias Defense System\n\nBiases are the #1 threat to decision quality. Active defense required.\n\nBias\tWhat It Does\tDefense\nConfirmation bias\tSeek info that confirms what you already believe\tAssign someone to argue the opposite. Search for \"why [your thesis] is wrong\"\nAnchoring\tFirst number you hear dominates your estimate\tGenerate your own estimate BEFORE looking at anyone else's\nSunk cost fallacy\tContinue because you've already invested\tAsk: \"If I were starting fresh today, would I begin this?\"\nSurvivorship bias\tStudy winners, ignore the dead\tAsk: \"How many tried this and failed? What did they have in common?\"\nDunning-Kruger\tOverconfidence in areas of low competence\tCheck: Am I inside my circle of competence?\nRecency bias\tOverweight recent events\tLook at 5-10 year base rates, not last quarter\nStatus quo bias\tPrefer current state even when suboptimal\tEvaluate \"do nothing\" as an active choice with its own costs\nGroupthink\tAgree with the room to avoid conflict\tWrite opinions independently BEFORE discussing. Use anonymous voting.\nAvailability heuristic\tJudge probability by how easily examples come to mind\tCheck actual data. Plane crashes feel common because they're memorable.\nLoss aversion\tFeel losses 2x more than equivalent gains\tReframe: \"What do I gain by NOT doing this?\"\nNarrative fallacy\tConstruct stories to explain random events\tAsk: \"Is this a pattern or am I connecting random dots?\"\nPlanning fallacy\tUnderestimate time/cost for tasks\tUse reference class forecasting: how long did SIMILAR projects take others?\nDaily Bias Checklist (Before Major Decisions)\n Have I actively sought disconfirming evidence?\n Am I anchored to someone else's number/frame?\n Am I continuing because of sunk costs?\n Would I make this same choice starting from zero?\n Have I considered the base rate, not just my situation?\n Has someone challenged this decision?\nPhase 5: Decision-Making Under Uncertainty\nConfidence Calibration\n\nBefore acting on any estimate:\n\nYour Confidence\tWhat It Should Mean\tCalibration Test\n50%\tCoin flip — could go either way\tWould you bet your own money at even odds?\n70%\tMore likely than not, but real chance of being wrong\tWould you bet 2:1?\n90%\tVery confident, would be surprised if wrong\tWould you bet 9:1?\n95%\tExtremely confident\tWould you bet 19:1?\n99%\tNear certain\tHave you been wrong at \"99% confidence\" before? (You have.)\n\nRule: Most people are overconfident. If you think you're 90% sure, you're probably 70% sure. Adjust down.\n\nInformation Value Assessment\n\nBefore spending time/money gathering more data:\n\nDecision to make: [X]\nCurrent best guess: [Y]\nCurrent confidence: [Z%]\n\nIf I gather [this information]:\n- Cost: [$X / Y hours]\n- Would it change my decision? [yes / maybe / probably not]\n- By how much would confidence increase? [+5% / +15% / +30%]\n\nValue of information = (confidence gain × decision stakes) - gathering cost\n\n\nRule: Don't research a $1,000 decision for 40 hours. Match effort to stakes.\n\nWhen to Decide (Timing Framework)\nSituation\tOptimal Decision Time\tWhy\nInformation depreciates quickly\tImmediately (minutes)\tWaiting destroys the option\nEasy to reverse\tQuickly (hours)\tCost of being wrong < cost of delay\nModerate stakes, some data\t70% information rule\tAt 70% confidence, decide. Waiting for 95% means you're too late.\nHigh stakes, irreversible\tTake available time (days-weeks)\tUse it all. Sleep on it. Get perspectives.\nEmotional decision\tWait minimum 24 hours\tEmotions are data, not directives. Let them settle.\nPhase 6: Group Decision-Making\nStructured Disagreement Protocol\n\nFor team/partner decisions where people disagree:\n\nIndependent write-up: Each person writes their recommendation and reasoning (5 min, no discussion)\nShare simultaneously: Everyone reveals at once (prevents anchoring)\nSteel man opposition: Each person must articulate the best version of the opposing view\nIdentify cruxes: What's the ONE factual question where if resolved, you'd change your mind?\nResolve or decide: If crux is resolvable → get the data. If not → whoever has the best BATNA decides, or the person closest to the information decides.\nRACI for Decisions\nRole\tDefinition\tRule\nR — Responsible\tDoes the analysis, prepares recommendation\tMax 2 people\nA — Accountable\tMakes the final call\tExactly 1 person\nC — Consulted\tProvides input before decision\tKeep small (3-5)\nI — Informed\tTold after decision is made\tEveryone affected\n\nCommon failure: No clear A. If two people think they're the decider, no decision gets made.\n\nPhase 7: Compounding & Systems Thinking\nCompounding Mental Model\n\nMost people think linearly. Compounding is the most powerful force:\n\nLinear: 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 4 (after 4 periods)\nCompounding: 1 × 1.1 × 1.1 × 1.1 × 1.1 = 1.46 (after 4 periods)\n\nBut after 50 periods:\nLinear: 50\nCompounding: 117.39\n\nRule of 72: Years to double = 72 / growth rate%\n- 10% growth → doubles in 7.2 years\n- 20% growth → doubles in 3.6 years\n- 1% daily improvement → 37x in one year\n\n\nApplication: Every decision should be evaluated for its compounding potential. A decision that creates a 1% improvement to a daily process is worth more than a one-time 50% improvement to an annual process.\n\nLeverage Points (Meadows)\n\nWhere to intervene in a system, ranked by effectiveness:\n\nParadigms (most powerful) — Change the mindset/goals of the system\nGoals — What the system is optimizing for\nRules — Incentives, constraints, punishments\nInformation flows — Who knows what, when\nFeedback loops — Speed and accuracy of response\nStructure — How components connect\nParameters (least powerful) — Numbers, budgets, quotas\n\nInsight: Most people intervene at #7 (adjust the budget). The highest-leverage interventions are at #1-3 (change what we're optimizing for).\n\nPhase 8: Personal Decision-Making\nThe Energy Audit\n\nNot all decisions need the same energy:\n\nhigh_energy_decisions: # Use frameworks, sleep on it\n - Career changes\n - Major financial commitments (>10% of net worth)\n - Hiring/firing\n - Market entry/exit\n - Relationship commitments\n\nmedium_energy_decisions: # 30-min analysis, then decide\n - Quarterly priorities\n - Tool/vendor selection\n - Pricing adjustments\n - Content strategy\n\nlow_energy_decisions: # Decide in <5 min or automate\n - What to eat, wear, read\n - Meeting attendance\n - Social media responses\n - Routine purchases\n\nrule: \"Match decision energy to decision stakes. Most people overthink low-energy decisions and underthink high-energy ones.\"\n\nDefault Rules (Eliminate Decision Fatigue)\n\nCreate personal defaults so you don't waste energy:\n\ndefaults:\n new_meeting_request: \"Default NO unless clearly advances top 3 priorities\"\n price_negotiation: \"Never discount more than 15% — offer value instead\"\n new_project: \"Default NO unless it replaces something on current list\"\n email_response: \"Batch 2x/day. Respond in ≤3 sentences or schedule a call\"\n investment: \"Default index fund. Active only with genuine edge + margin of safety\"\n delegation: \"If someone can do it 80% as well, delegate\"\n saying_yes: \"If it's not a HELL YES, it's a no\"\n\nPhase 9: Decision Frameworks by Situation\n\nQuick reference — which framework for which situation:\n\nSituation\tPrimary Framework\tSupporting Model\nShould we enter this market?\tPorter's Five Forces + Moat Assessment\tScenario Planning\nShould I take this job/opportunity?\tRegret Minimization + Circle of Competence\tAsymmetric Risk\nWhich feature to build next?\tICE Scoring + JTBD\t2nd Order Thinking\nShould we invest/bet on X?\tExpected Value + Margin of Safety\tPre-Mortem\nHow to price our product?\tSee afrexai-pricing-strategy\tCompetitive Positioning\nHiring decision?\tSee afrexai-interview-architect\tCircle of Competence\nHow to negotiate this deal?\tBATNA + Cialdini\tSee afrexai-negotiation-mastery\nBuild or buy this component?\tBuild vs Buy Matrix\tReversibility Assessment\nTeam disagrees on direction\tStructured Disagreement Protocol\tPre-Mortem\nI'm overwhelmed with options\tEisenhower Matrix + Default Rules\tEnergy Audit\nBusiness feels fragile\tAntifragility Assessment\tScenario Planning\nCompetitor making moves\tOODA Loop + See afrexai-competitive-intel\tWardley Mapping\nSomething failed, now what?\t5 Whys + Inversion\tSunk Cost check\nBig life decision\tRegret Minimization + Second-Order\tSleep on it (24h rule)\nPhase 10: Decision Quality Rubric\n\nScore any decision AFTER making it (or retrospectively):\n\nDimension\tWeight\tScore (0-10)\tWeighted\nProblem definition clarity\t15%\t_\t_\nOptions explored (≥3, incl. \"do nothing\")\t15%\t_\t_\nEvidence quality (data vs. gut)\t15%\t_\t_\nBias mitigation (actively countered?)\t15%\t_\t_\nStakeholder input (right people consulted?)\t10%\t_\t_\nSecond-order effects considered\t10%\t_\t_\nReversibility & downside mapped\t10%\t_\t_\nTime-appropriate process\t10%\t_\t_\nTotal\t100%\t\t_ /100\n\n≥80: Excellent process — outcome is in fortune's hands, not yours 60-79: Good — minor gaps but fundamentally sound 40-59: Mediocre — important dimensions skipped ≤39: Poor — outcome is a coin flip regardless of luck\n\nCritical insight: Judge decisions by PROCESS quality, not outcomes. A good process can produce bad outcomes (variance). A bad process that produces good outcomes is dangerous — it teaches bad habits.\n\nPhase 11: Decision Record Template\n\nDocument every significant decision:\n\ndecision_record:\n id: \"DR-[YYYY-MM-DD]-[number]\"\n date: \"YYYY-MM-DD\"\n decision: \"[One sentence — what we decided]\"\n type: \"1 | 2\"\n context: \"[Why this decision was needed now]\"\n options_considered:\n - option: \"[Option A]\"\n pros: [\"...\", \"...\"]\n cons: [\"...\", \"...\"]\n - option: \"[Option B]\"\n pros: [\"...\", \"...\"]\n cons: [\"...\", \"...\"]\n - option: \"Do nothing\"\n pros: [\"...\", \"...\"]\n cons: [\"...\", \"...\"]\n decision_rationale: \"[Why we chose this option]\"\n frameworks_used: [\"[Framework 1]\", \"[Framework 2]\"]\n key_assumptions: [\"[Assumption 1]\", \"[Assumption 2]\"]\n risks_accepted: [\"[Risk 1]\", \"[Risk 2]\"]\n success_criteria: \"[How we'll know this was right]\"\n review_date: \"YYYY-MM-DD (when to evaluate)\"\n quality_score: \"X/100 (Phase 10 rubric)\"\n decided_by: \"[Name]\"\n consulted: [\"[Name 1]\", \"[Name 2]\"]\n \n # Fill in at review_date:\n outcome: \"[What actually happened]\"\n lessons: \"[What we learned]\"\n would_decide_differently: \"yes | no\"\n why: \"[If yes, what would we change about the PROCESS?]\"\n\nPhase 12: Advanced Patterns\nBarbell Strategy (Taleb)\n\nCombine extreme safety with extreme risk. Avoid the middle.\n\nPortfolio: 85-90% ultra-safe (treasuries, cash, index) + 10-15% high-risk/high-reward (startups, crypto, moonshots)\nTime: 80% predictable deep work + 20% wild exploration/experimentation\nProducts: Cash cow product (boring, reliable) + speculative bets (innovative, might fail)\nCareer: Stable income source + asymmetric side projects\n\n\nWhy no middle: The \"medium risk\" zone gives you medium returns with hidden tail risk. Better to KNOW you're safe on one side and gambling on the other.\n\nLindy Effect\n\nThe longer something has survived, the longer it will likely survive.\n\nApplications:\n\nBooks: A 100-year-old book is more likely relevant in 10 years than a 1-year-old book\nTechnologies: SQL (50 years) will outlast this year's hot framework\nBusiness models: Subscription model (centuries old as concept) > novel monetization\nAdvice: Wisdom from 2,000 years ago (Stoics, Sun Tzu) > last week's Twitter thread\nVia Negativa (Subtract, Don't Add)\n\nOften the best decision is what to REMOVE, not what to add:\n\nRemove a feature (focus)\nRemove a meeting (time)\nRemove a client (sanity, team morale)\nRemove a goal (clarity)\nRemove a bad habit (energy)\nRemove complexity (reliability)\n\nTemplate: \"What's the ONE thing I could eliminate that would improve everything else?\"\n\nOpportunity Cost Consciousness\n\nEvery yes is a no to something else:\n\nIf I do X:\n- Direct benefit: [value gained]\n- Time cost: [hours/days/weeks]\n- Best alternative use of that time: [what I'm saying no to]\n- Opportunity cost: [value of best alternative forgone]\n\nNet value = Direct benefit - Opportunity cost\n\n\nIf net value is negative, you're destroying value by saying yes — even though it \"feels productive.\"\n\n10 Decision-Making Commandments\nClassify before analyzing. Type 1 or Type 2? Match process to stakes.\n\"Do nothing\" is always an option. Evaluate it explicitly.\nSeek disconfirming evidence. The moment you like an idea, hunt for why it's wrong.\nSeparate process from outcome. Good process, bad outcome = fine. Bad process, good outcome = lucky.\nTime-box decisions. Set a deadline. Perfectionism is a form of procrastination.\nWrite it down. Unwritten decisions can't be reviewed, learned from, or challenged.\nOne decider. Every decision needs exactly one person who makes the final call.\nSleep on Type 1 decisions. Your brain processes during sleep. Use it.\nReview decisions. Quarterly, look at your decision records. What patterns emerge?\nCompound decision quality. Each good decision process makes the next one better. This is the real edge.\n10 Common Decision Mistakes\n#\tMistake\tFix\n1\tDeciding too slowly on Type 2 decisions\tSet a timer. If reversible, decide now.\n2\tNever writing down assumptions\tEvery decision has assumptions. Write them. Test them.\n3\tAsking for consensus instead of input\tConsensus = lowest common denominator. Get input, then one person decides.\n4\tOptimizing for one variable\tLife is multi-variable. Use weighted scoring.\n5\tIgnoring opportunity cost\t\"This is good\" isn't enough. \"This is better than alternatives\" is the bar.\n6\tDeciding when emotional\t24-hour rule for anything you'd regret.\n7\tCopying without context\t\"Amazon does X\" means nothing if you're not Amazon. Understand WHY they do X.\n8\tAnalysis paralysis on small decisions\tAutomate (defaults) or delegate anything under $500/2 hours.\n9\tNever reviewing past decisions\tSame mistakes on repeat. Quarterly decision reviews = compounding improvement.\n10\tConflating confidence with competence\tLoud ≠ right. Data ≠ understanding. Check circle of competence.\nNatural Language Commands\n\"Help me decide [X]\" → Full decision walkthrough (Quick Start)\n\"Score this decision\" → Decision Quality Rubric (Phase 10)\n\"Pre-mortem [plan]\" → Pre-mortem exercise (Phase 4)\n\"Is this inside my circle?\" → Circle of Competence check\n\"Bias check\" → Daily Bias Checklist\n\"Expected value of [bet]\" → EV calculation\n\"Map the second-order effects\" → Second-order thinking template\n\"BATNA analysis for [negotiation]\" → Full BATNA template\n\"Rate this market\" → Porter's Five Forces scoring\n\"How strong is the moat?\" → Moat Assessment\n\"Which framework should I use?\" → Phase 9 situation lookup\n\"Write a decision record\" → DR template (Phase 11)" }, "trust": { "sourceLabel": "tencent", "provenanceUrl": "https://clawhub.ai/1kalin/afrexai-strategic-thinking", "publisherUrl": "https://clawhub.ai/1kalin/afrexai-strategic-thinking", "owner": "1kalin", "version": "1.0.0", "license": null, "verificationStatus": "Indexed source record" }, "links": { "detailUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/skills/afrexai-strategic-thinking", "downloadUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/downloads/afrexai-strategic-thinking", "agentUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/skills/afrexai-strategic-thinking/agent", "manifestUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/skills/afrexai-strategic-thinking/agent.json", "briefUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/skills/afrexai-strategic-thinking/agent.md" } }