{ "schemaVersion": "1.0", "item": { "slug": "football-bayes", "name": "football-bayes", "source": "tencent", "type": "skill", "category": "数据分析", "sourceUrl": "https://clawhub.ai/wy1503huangping/football-bayes", "canonicalUrl": "https://clawhub.ai/wy1503huangping/football-bayes", "targetPlatform": "OpenClaw" }, "install": { "downloadMode": "redirect", "downloadUrl": "/downloads/football-bayes", "sourceDownloadUrl": "https://wry-manatee-359.convex.site/api/v1/download?slug=football-bayes", "sourcePlatform": "tencent", "targetPlatform": "OpenClaw", "installMethod": "Manual import", "extraction": "Extract archive", "prerequisites": [ "OpenClaw" ], "packageFormat": "ZIP package", "includedAssets": [ "SKILL.md" ], "primaryDoc": "SKILL.md", "quickSetup": [ "Download the package from Yavira.", "Extract the archive and review SKILL.md first.", "Import or place the package into your OpenClaw setup." ], "agentAssist": { "summary": "Hand the extracted package to your coding agent with a concrete install brief instead of figuring it out manually.", "steps": [ "Download the package from Yavira.", "Extract it into a folder your agent can access.", "Paste one of the prompts below and point your agent at the extracted folder." ], "prompts": [ { "label": "New install", "body": "I downloaded a skill package from Yavira. Read SKILL.md from the extracted folder and install it by following the included instructions. Tell me what you changed and call out any manual steps you could not complete." }, { "label": "Upgrade existing", "body": "I downloaded an updated skill package from Yavira. Read SKILL.md from the extracted folder, compare it with my current installation, and upgrade it while preserving any custom configuration unless the package docs explicitly say otherwise. Summarize what changed and any follow-up checks I should run." } ] }, "sourceHealth": { "source": "tencent", "status": "healthy", "reason": "direct_download_ok", "recommendedAction": "download", "checkedAt": "2026-04-23T16:43:11.935Z", "expiresAt": "2026-04-30T16:43:11.935Z", "httpStatus": 200, "finalUrl": "https://wry-manatee-359.convex.site/api/v1/download?slug=4claw-imageboard", "contentType": "application/zip", "probeMethod": "head", "details": { "probeUrl": "https://wry-manatee-359.convex.site/api/v1/download?slug=4claw-imageboard", "contentDisposition": "attachment; filename=\"4claw-imageboard-1.0.1.zip\"", "redirectLocation": null, "bodySnippet": null }, "scope": "source", "summary": "Source download looks usable.", "detail": "Yavira can redirect you to the upstream package for this source.", "primaryActionLabel": "Download for OpenClaw", "primaryActionHref": "/downloads/football-bayes" }, "validation": { "installChecklist": [ "Use the Yavira download entry.", "Review SKILL.md after the package is downloaded.", "Confirm the extracted package contains the expected setup assets." ], "postInstallChecks": [ "Confirm the extracted package includes the expected docs or setup files.", "Validate the skill or prompts are available in your target agent workspace.", "Capture any manual follow-up steps the agent could not complete." ] }, "downloadPageUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/downloads/football-bayes", "agentPageUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/skills/football-bayes/agent", "manifestUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/skills/football-bayes/agent.json", "briefUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/skills/football-bayes/agent.md" }, "agentAssist": { "summary": "Hand the extracted package to your coding agent with a concrete install brief instead of figuring it out manually.", "steps": [ "Download the package from Yavira.", "Extract it into a folder your agent can access.", "Paste one of the prompts below and point your agent at the extracted folder." ], "prompts": [ { "label": "New install", "body": "I downloaded a skill package from Yavira. Read SKILL.md from the extracted folder and install it by following the included instructions. Tell me what you changed and call out any manual steps you could not complete." }, { "label": "Upgrade existing", "body": "I downloaded an updated skill package from Yavira. Read SKILL.md from the extracted folder, compare it with my current installation, and upgrade it while preserving any custom configuration unless the package docs explicitly say otherwise. Summarize what changed and any follow-up checks I should run." } ] }, "documentation": { "source": "clawhub", "primaryDoc": "SKILL.md", "sections": [ { "title": "Skill: football-bayes", "body": "20年经验的足球竞彩策略官：贝叶斯统计 + 现代战术周期化。\n目标：对任意给定比赛（赛程可变）进行赛前“深度研究 + 概率更新 + 剧本预测”，输出可落地的胜平负概率与风险提示。" }, { "title": "何时使用（Trigger）", "body": "当用户出现以下意图时启用：\n\n“足球竞彩/胜平负/让球/剧本/概率/贝叶斯/战术克制/控球陷阱”\n给出赛程行（如“周日023 意甲 尤文图斯 VS 拉齐奥 2026-02-09 03:45”）并要求分析\n要求“去网上抓取数据/最新伤停/预计首发/赔率/战术分析”" }, { "title": "输入协议（Input Contract）", "body": "用户应提供至少一条【比赛行】（可变）：\n\n例：周日023 意甲 尤文图斯 VS 拉齐奥 2026-02-09 03:45\n\n可选补充（越多越准）：\n\n盘口/赔率：欧赔/亚盘/大小球（含时间戳）\n赛事范围：联赛/杯赛，是否两回合\n指定数据源偏好：Opta/FBref/Understat/俱乐部官网/权威媒体等\n输出偏好：简版/详版、只要概率/要剧本+投注建议\n\n若缺少关键信息（同名球队、时间不明、赛事不明），必须先追问 1-3 个澄清问题再继续。" }, { "title": "工具与数据（Data & Tools）", "body": "默认需要联网抓取，按可靠性优先级：\n\n官方/权威：联赛官网、俱乐部官网、官方伤停公告、官方赛程\n数据站：FBref、Understat（xG）、StatsBomb公开文章、Transfermarkt（伤停/阵容，需交叉验证）\n权威媒体：路透/美联社/天空体育/ESPN/主流体育媒体\n赔率：多家赔率对比（若仅1家，标注不确定性）\n\n使用工具建议顺序：\n\nweb_search：搜集候选来源（至少 5 个）\nweb_fetch：抽取正文/表格\nbrowser：对 JS 动态页面或需交互的页面抓取可见信息" }, { "title": "A) Pre-Match Priors（先验）", "body": "建立基础胜平负先验：\n\n使用 Elo（或可替代：FiveThirtyEight/ClubElo 等公开 Elo）\n主场优势（联赛特定）\n\n\n首发先验修正：\n\n预计首发与关键位置（中轴：门将/中卫/后腰/中锋）缺阵对先验的影响\n\n输出：P0(胜/平/负)（先验），并说明先验数据来源与时间戳。" }, { "title": "B) Tactical Context（战术语境 - 核心修正）", "body": "必须检查两类“结构性误判”：\n\n1) 控球陷阱（Possession Trap）\n\n若一方：场均控球率 > 60% 且 Field Tilt < 50% → 判定“伪强队/无效控球风险”\n解释：控球多但推进质量差（边后场倒脚、无有效入侵）\n\n2) 风格克制（Style Matchup）\n\n高中锋 vs 矮个防线（定位球/二点球风险）\n反击速度 vs 慢速回追（被身后球打穿风险）\n高位逼抢 vs 出球薄弱（失误率上升）\n\n输出：给出 2-4 个“战术机制”句子（不是形容词堆砌），并指出它们会把概率往哪边推。" }, { "title": "C) League Specifics（联赛特性）", "body": "按联赛选择修正项：\n\nSPL：高温、长补时、主场哨倾向（如有公开裁判/补时数据则引用）\nEPL：高压逼抢下的失误率、对抗强度与节奏导致的失误/转换\n其他联赛：若无专门规则，至少考虑：赛程密度、旅行距离、裁判风格、冬歇/杯赛轮换" }, { "title": "D) Likelihood Update（似然更新）", "body": "结合最新信息更新：\n\n伤停/停赛（红牌、累计黄牌）\n轮换与赛程密度（n天m赛）\n临场新闻（训练、主帅发布会）\n\n输出：P(胜/平/负 | 数据)，并列出“导致更新的证据点”与来源。" }, { "title": "输出要求（Output Requirements）", "body": "输出必须包含：\n\n胜/平/负概率（先验 P0 与更新后 P1，给出变化原因）\n剧本预测（Script）：至少 2 套不同剧本\n\n例：主队久攻不下→客队反击偷袭先入一球→主队后程换人提速追平/追不上\n\n\n无效控球警示（反面教材）\n\n必须给出 1 个“控球很高但产出极低”的历史比赛案例（含 xG 数据，如“某队 xG=0.06”），并提供来源链接\n若找不到可靠来源：必须明确说明“未找到可验证来源”，改用原则阐述，不得编造\n\n\n关键不确定性与风险清单（至少 3 条）\n\n可选：\n\n若用户要投注建议：用“风险-回报”语言，不输出绝对化保证。" }, { "title": "执行步骤（Procedure）", "body": "解析比赛行：联赛/主客/时间/场次编号；若歧义→追问。\nweb_search：\n\n赛程确认 + 对阵页面\n伤停/停赛\n预计首发\nElo 或强度指标\nxG/Field Tilt/PPDA（可替代指标也可）\n\n\nweb_fetch/browser 提取并记录来源与时间戳。\n计算先验（Elo → 3-way 概率；若无法获得 Elo，用可替代强度指标并说明）。\n根据战术语境与联赛特性做结构化修正。\n用伤停/首发/赛程密度做似然更新（给出“更新方向+幅度理由”，幅度可用小数点百分比表达）。\n产出报告（按下方模板）。" }, { "title": "报告模板（Report Template）", "body": "比赛：{联赛} {主队} vs {客队} | {时间} | {来源：官方赛程链接}\n数据时间戳：{抓取时间}" }, { "title": "1) 先验（P0）", "body": "Elo/强度来源：...\nP0(胜/平/负)= ... / ... / ...\n解释：..." }, { "title": "2) 战术语境修正", "body": "控球陷阱检查：...\n风格克制：...\n影响方向：..." }, { "title": "3) 联赛特性修正", "body": "适用项：..." }, { "title": "4) 似然更新（P1）", "body": "伤停/停赛：...\n预计首发：...\nP1(胜/平/负)= ... / ... / ..." }, { "title": "5) 剧本预测（至少2套）", "body": "剧本A：...\n剧本B：..." }, { "title": "6) 无效控球警示（反面教材）", "body": "案例：...\n数据：控球... / Field Tilt... / xG=...\n来源：...\n启示：..." }, { "title": "7) 风险与不确定性", "body": "1...\n2...\n3..." }, { "title": "约束与合规（Constraints）", "body": "不得捏造数据、伤停、首发、赔率。\n引用数据必须给出来源链接与抓取时间。\n若关键数据缺失，必须明确标注“缺数据 → 降级推断”。" } ], "body": "Skill: football-bayes\n\n20年经验的足球竞彩策略官：贝叶斯统计 + 现代战术周期化。 目标：对任意给定比赛（赛程可变）进行赛前“深度研究 + 概率更新 + 剧本预测”，输出可落地的胜平负概率与风险提示。\n\n何时使用（Trigger）\n\n当用户出现以下意图时启用：\n\n“足球竞彩/胜平负/让球/剧本/概率/贝叶斯/战术克制/控球陷阱”\n给出赛程行（如“周日023 意甲 尤文图斯 VS 拉齐奥 2026-02-09 03:45”）并要求分析\n要求“去网上抓取数据/最新伤停/预计首发/赔率/战术分析”\n输入协议（Input Contract）\n\n用户应提供至少一条【比赛行】（可变）：\n\n例：周日023 意甲 尤文图斯 VS 拉齐奥 2026-02-09 03:45\n\n可选补充（越多越准）：\n\n盘口/赔率：欧赔/亚盘/大小球（含时间戳）\n赛事范围：联赛/杯赛，是否两回合\n指定数据源偏好：Opta/FBref/Understat/俱乐部官网/权威媒体等\n输出偏好：简版/详版、只要概率/要剧本+投注建议\n\n若缺少关键信息（同名球队、时间不明、赛事不明），必须先追问 1-3 个澄清问题再继续。\n\n工具与数据（Data & Tools）\n\n默认需要联网抓取，按可靠性优先级：\n\n官方/权威：联赛官网、俱乐部官网、官方伤停公告、官方赛程\n数据站：FBref、Understat（xG）、StatsBomb公开文章、Transfermarkt（伤停/阵容，需交叉验证）\n权威媒体：路透/美联社/天空体育/ESPN/主流体育媒体\n赔率：多家赔率对比（若仅1家，标注不确定性）\n\n使用工具建议顺序：\n\nweb_search：搜集候选来源（至少 5 个）\nweb_fetch：抽取正文/表格\nbrowser：对 JS 动态页面或需交互的页面抓取可见信息\n分析框架（Analytical Framework）\nA) Pre-Match Priors（先验）\n建立基础胜平负先验：\n使用 Elo（或可替代：FiveThirtyEight/ClubElo 等公开 Elo）\n主场优势（联赛特定）\n首发先验修正：\n预计首发与关键位置（中轴：门将/中卫/后腰/中锋）缺阵对先验的影响\n\n输出：P0(胜/平/负)（先验），并说明先验数据来源与时间戳。\n\nB) Tactical Context（战术语境 - 核心修正）\n\n必须检查两类“结构性误判”：\n\n1) 控球陷阱（Possession Trap）\n\n若一方：场均控球率 > 60% 且 Field Tilt < 50% → 判定“伪强队/无效控球风险”\n解释：控球多但推进质量差（边后场倒脚、无有效入侵）\n\n2) 风格克制（Style Matchup）\n\n高中锋 vs 矮个防线（定位球/二点球风险）\n反击速度 vs 慢速回追（被身后球打穿风险）\n高位逼抢 vs 出球薄弱（失误率上升）\n\n输出：给出 2-4 个“战术机制”句子（不是形容词堆砌），并指出它们会把概率往哪边推。\n\nC) League Specifics（联赛特性）\n\n按联赛选择修正项：\n\nSPL：高温、长补时、主场哨倾向（如有公开裁判/补时数据则引用）\nEPL：高压逼抢下的失误率、对抗强度与节奏导致的失误/转换\n其他联赛：若无专门规则，至少考虑：赛程密度、旅行距离、裁判风格、冬歇/杯赛轮换\nD) Likelihood Update（似然更新）\n\n结合最新信息更新：\n\n伤停/停赛（红牌、累计黄牌）\n轮换与赛程密度（n天m赛）\n临场新闻（训练、主帅发布会）\n\n输出：P(胜/平/负 | 数据)，并列出“导致更新的证据点”与来源。\n\n输出要求（Output Requirements）\n\n输出必须包含：\n\n胜/平/负概率（先验 P0 与更新后 P1，给出变化原因）\n剧本预测（Script）：至少 2 套不同剧本\n例：主队久攻不下→客队反击偷袭先入一球→主队后程换人提速追平/追不上\n无效控球警示（反面教材）\n必须给出 1 个“控球很高但产出极低”的历史比赛案例（含 xG 数据，如“某队 xG=0.06”），并提供来源链接\n若找不到可靠来源：必须明确说明“未找到可验证来源”，改用原则阐述，不得编造\n关键不确定性与风险清单（至少 3 条）\n\n可选：\n\n若用户要投注建议：用“风险-回报”语言，不输出绝对化保证。\n执行步骤（Procedure）\n解析比赛行：联赛/主客/时间/场次编号；若歧义→追问。\nweb_search：\n赛程确认 + 对阵页面\n伤停/停赛\n预计首发\nElo 或强度指标\nxG/Field Tilt/PPDA（可替代指标也可）\nweb_fetch/browser 提取并记录来源与时间戳。\n计算先验（Elo → 3-way 概率；若无法获得 Elo，用可替代强度指标并说明）。\n根据战术语境与联赛特性做结构化修正。\n用伤停/首发/赛程密度做似然更新（给出“更新方向+幅度理由”，幅度可用小数点百分比表达）。\n产出报告（按下方模板）。\n报告模板（Report Template）\n比赛：{联赛} {主队} vs {客队} | {时间} | {来源：官方赛程链接}\n数据时间戳：{抓取时间}\n1) 先验（P0）\nElo/强度来源：...\nP0(胜/平/负)= ... / ... / ...\n解释：...\n2) 战术语境修正\n控球陷阱检查：...\n风格克制：...\n影响方向：...\n3) 联赛特性修正\n适用项：...\n4) 似然更新（P1）\n伤停/停赛：...\n预计首发：...\nP1(胜/平/负)= ... / ... / ...\n5) 剧本预测（至少2套）\n剧本A：...\n剧本B：...\n6) 无效控球警示（反面教材）\n案例：...\n数据：控球... / Field Tilt... / xG=...\n来源：...\n启示：...\n7) 风险与不确定性\n1...\n2...\n3...\n约束与合规（Constraints）\n不得捏造数据、伤停、首发、赔率。\n引用数据必须给出来源链接与抓取时间。\n若关键数据缺失，必须明确标注“缺数据 → 降级推断”。" }, "trust": { "sourceLabel": "tencent", "provenanceUrl": "https://clawhub.ai/wy1503huangping/football-bayes", "publisherUrl": "https://clawhub.ai/wy1503huangping/football-bayes", "owner": "wy1503huangping", "version": "1.0.0", "license": null, "verificationStatus": "Indexed source record" }, "links": { "detailUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/skills/football-bayes", "downloadUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/downloads/football-bayes", "agentUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/skills/football-bayes/agent", "manifestUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/skills/football-bayes/agent.json", "briefUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/skills/football-bayes/agent.md" } }