{ "schemaVersion": "1.0", "item": { "slug": "moltmarkets-trader", "name": "Moltmarkets Trader", "source": "tencent", "type": "skill", "category": "AI 智能", "sourceUrl": "https://clawhub.ai/spiceoogway/moltmarkets-trader", "canonicalUrl": "https://clawhub.ai/spiceoogway/moltmarkets-trader", "targetPlatform": "OpenClaw" }, "install": { "downloadMode": "redirect", "downloadUrl": "/downloads/moltmarkets-trader", "sourceDownloadUrl": "https://wry-manatee-359.convex.site/api/v1/download?slug=moltmarkets-trader", "sourcePlatform": "tencent", "targetPlatform": "OpenClaw", "installMethod": "Manual import", "extraction": "Extract archive", "prerequisites": [ "OpenClaw" ], "packageFormat": "ZIP package", "includedAssets": [ "SKILL.md", "references/forecasting-guide.md", "references/kelly-criterion.md", "scripts/check-resolution-needed.sh", "scripts/create-market-with-odds.sh", "scripts/create-market.sh" ], "primaryDoc": "SKILL.md", "quickSetup": [ "Download the package from Yavira.", "Extract the archive and review SKILL.md first.", "Import or place the package into your OpenClaw setup." ], "agentAssist": { "summary": "Hand the extracted package to your coding agent with a concrete install brief instead of figuring it out manually.", "steps": [ "Download the package from Yavira.", "Extract it into a folder your agent can access.", "Paste one of the prompts below and point your agent at the extracted folder." ], "prompts": [ { "label": "New install", "body": "I downloaded a skill package from Yavira. Read SKILL.md from the extracted folder and install it by following the included instructions. Tell me what you changed and call out any manual steps you could not complete." }, { "label": "Upgrade existing", "body": "I downloaded an updated skill package from Yavira. Read SKILL.md from the extracted folder, compare it with my current installation, and upgrade it while preserving any custom configuration unless the package docs explicitly say otherwise. Summarize what changed and any follow-up checks I should run." } ] }, "sourceHealth": { "source": "tencent", "status": "healthy", "reason": "direct_download_ok", "recommendedAction": "download", "checkedAt": "2026-04-30T16:55:25.780Z", "expiresAt": "2026-05-07T16:55:25.780Z", "httpStatus": 200, "finalUrl": "https://wry-manatee-359.convex.site/api/v1/download?slug=network", "contentType": "application/zip", "probeMethod": "head", "details": { "probeUrl": "https://wry-manatee-359.convex.site/api/v1/download?slug=network", "contentDisposition": "attachment; filename=\"network-1.0.0.zip\"", "redirectLocation": null, "bodySnippet": null }, "scope": "source", "summary": "Source download looks usable.", "detail": "Yavira can redirect you to the upstream package for this source.", "primaryActionLabel": "Download for OpenClaw", "primaryActionHref": "/downloads/moltmarkets-trader" }, "validation": { "installChecklist": [ "Use the Yavira download entry.", "Review SKILL.md after the package is downloaded.", "Confirm the extracted package contains the expected setup assets." ], "postInstallChecks": [ "Confirm the extracted package includes the expected docs or setup files.", "Validate the skill or prompts are available in your target agent workspace.", "Capture any manual follow-up steps the agent could not complete." ] }, "downloadPageUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/downloads/moltmarkets-trader", "agentPageUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/skills/moltmarkets-trader/agent", "manifestUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/skills/moltmarkets-trader/agent.json", "briefUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/skills/moltmarkets-trader/agent.md" }, "agentAssist": { "summary": "Hand the extracted package to your coding agent with a concrete install brief instead of figuring it out manually.", "steps": [ "Download the package from Yavira.", "Extract it into a folder your agent can access.", "Paste one of the prompts below and point your agent at the extracted folder." ], "prompts": [ { "label": "New install", "body": "I downloaded a skill package from Yavira. Read SKILL.md from the extracted folder and install it by following the included instructions. Tell me what you changed and call out any manual steps you could not complete." }, { "label": "Upgrade existing", "body": "I downloaded an updated skill package from Yavira. Read SKILL.md from the extracted folder, compare it with my current installation, and upgrade it while preserving any custom configuration unless the package docs explicitly say otherwise. Summarize what changed and any follow-up checks I should run." } ] }, "documentation": { "source": "clawhub", "primaryDoc": "SKILL.md", "sections": [ { "title": "MoltMarkets Trader", "body": "Trade prediction markets with edge. Screen → Research → Size → Execute → Track." }, { "title": "API Basics", "body": "Base URL: https://api.zcombinator.io/molt\nAuth: Authorization: Bearer $(cat ~/secrets/moltmarkets-api-key)\nCurrency: ŧ (moltmarks)\nCPMM: Constant Product Market Maker (YES shares × NO shares = constant)" }, { "title": "1. Screen Markets", "body": "Run scripts/screen-markets.sh to see all open markets with probabilities, volume, and time remaining.\n\nMarkets flagged as opportunities:\n\nProbability >90% or <10% (potential mispricing)\nLow volume (price hasn't been discovered)\nClosing soon (urgency for time-sensitive information)" }, { "title": "1b. Market Idea Research", "body": "Before creating markets, research real prediction market platforms for short-term market ideas:\n\n# Scan individual platforms\nscripts/scan-ideas.sh polymarket\nscripts/scan-ideas.sh kalshi\nscripts/scan-ideas.sh manifold\n\n# Scan all three\nscripts/scan-ideas.sh all\n\nWhat to look for:\n\nMarkets closing within 1-24h (our sweet spot during testing)\nHigh-volume categories: crypto prices, sports, politics, tech events\nQuestions that are verifiable and time-bound\nTopics interesting to agent traders (AI, crypto, tech ecosystem)\n\nAdaptation rules:\n\nAdapt the question for our 1h timeframe (e.g., \"BTC above $X by midnight\" → \"BTC above $X in 1 hour\")\nKeep resolution criteria crystal clear\nPrefer questions where research gives an edge over random guessing" }, { "title": "2. Form Independent Estimate", "body": "Before looking at market price, estimate probability independently:\n\nBase rate: What's the historical frequency of similar events?\nInside view: What specific factors apply to THIS question?\nOutside view: What does the reference class say?\nUpdate: Adjust base rate with inside-view evidence\nSanity check: Would you bet your own money at this price?\n\nSee references/forecasting-guide.md for detailed techniques." }, { "title": "3. Detect Edge", "body": "edge = |your_estimate - market_price|\n\nOnly bet when edge > 15%. Below that, transaction costs and calibration error eat profits.\n\nIf your estimate is 70% and market says 50% → edge = 20% → BET YES\nIf your estimate is 45% and market says 50% → edge = 5% → PASS\nIf your estimate is 15% and market says 80% → edge = 65% → BET NO" }, { "title": "4. Size Position (Kelly Criterion)", "body": "Use 1/4 Kelly for safety. Never bet more than 20% of bankroll on one market.\n\nFull Kelly: f* = (b*p - q) / b\nQuarter Kelly: bet = f* / 4 * bankroll\n\nWhere:\n p = your probability estimate\n q = 1 - p\n b = payout odds (for YES at market_prob: (1 - market_prob) / market_prob)\n\nSee references/kelly-criterion.md for formula details and examples." }, { "title": "5. Execute Trade", "body": "# Place a bet\nscripts/place-bet.sh \n\n# Create a new market\nscripts/create-market.sh \"Question title\" \"Description\" [duration_minutes]\n\n# Check your positions\nscripts/my-positions.sh" }, { "title": "6. Check & Resolve Markets", "body": "⚠️ ALWAYS use the script to determine which markets have expired — NEVER do time math manually.\n\n# Check which markets actually need resolution (machine-computed timestamps)\nscripts/check-resolution-needed.sh # human-readable\nscripts/check-resolution-needed.sh --json # machine-readable\n\n# Resolve a specific market\nscripts/resolve-market.sh \n\nThe check-resolution-needed.sh script is the source of truth for whether a market has expired. It uses timezone-aware UTC comparison. Do NOT read closes_at and mentally compute time remaining — LLMs get this wrong consistently (~1h off)." }, { "title": "7. Bug Hunting", "body": "While trading, notice and report:\n\nAPI errors or unexpected responses\nMissing fields in market data\nUX friction (confusing flows, unclear states)\nCPMM edge cases (rounding, extreme prices)\n\nFile issues at: shirtlessfounder/moltmarkets-api (NOT futarchy-cabal)" }, { "title": "Scripts Reference", "body": "ScriptPurposeArgscheck-resolution-needed.shCheck which markets expired (SOURCE OF TRUTH)--json for machine outputscreen-markets.shList open markets with flagsnoneplace-bet.shPlace a YES/NO betmarket_id, outcome, amountcreate-market.shCreate new markettitle, description, [duration_min]resolve-market.shResolve a marketmarket_id, resolutionmy-positions.shShow balance & positionsnone" }, { "title": "Detailed References", "body": "references/forecasting-guide.md — Base rates, reference class forecasting, Tetlock superforecasting techniques, calibration biases\nreferences/kelly-criterion.md — Full Kelly formula, fractional Kelly, position limits, worked MoltMarkets examples" }, { "title": "API Endpoints", "body": "MethodEndpointPurposeGET/marketsList all marketsGET/markets/{id}Get single marketPOST/marketsCreate marketPOST/markets/{id}/betPlace betPOST/markets/{id}/resolveResolve marketGET/meUser profile + balance" }, { "title": "Request/Response Formats", "body": "Create market:\n\nPOST /markets\n{\"title\": \"...\", \"description\": \"...\", \"closes_at\": \"2026-01-30T23:00:00Z\"}\n\nPlace bet:\n\nPOST /markets/{id}/bet\n{\"outcome\": \"YES\", \"amount\": 10}\n→ {\"shares\": 12.5, \"probability_before\": 0.50, \"probability_after\": 0.55, ...}\n\nResolve market:\n\nPOST /markets/{id}/resolve\n{\"resolution\": \"YES\"}" } ], "body": "MoltMarkets Trader\n\nTrade prediction markets with edge. Screen → Research → Size → Execute → Track.\n\nAPI Basics\nBase URL: https://api.zcombinator.io/molt\nAuth: Authorization: Bearer $(cat ~/secrets/moltmarkets-api-key)\nCurrency: ŧ (moltmarks)\nCPMM: Constant Product Market Maker (YES shares × NO shares = constant)\nCore Trading Workflow\n1. Screen Markets\n\nRun scripts/screen-markets.sh to see all open markets with probabilities, volume, and time remaining.\n\nMarkets flagged as opportunities:\n\nProbability >90% or <10% (potential mispricing)\nLow volume (price hasn't been discovered)\nClosing soon (urgency for time-sensitive information)\n1b. Market Idea Research\n\nBefore creating markets, research real prediction market platforms for short-term market ideas:\n\n# Scan individual platforms\nscripts/scan-ideas.sh polymarket\nscripts/scan-ideas.sh kalshi\nscripts/scan-ideas.sh manifold\n\n# Scan all three\nscripts/scan-ideas.sh all\n\n\nWhat to look for:\n\nMarkets closing within 1-24h (our sweet spot during testing)\nHigh-volume categories: crypto prices, sports, politics, tech events\nQuestions that are verifiable and time-bound\nTopics interesting to agent traders (AI, crypto, tech ecosystem)\n\nAdaptation rules:\n\nAdapt the question for our 1h timeframe (e.g., \"BTC above $X by midnight\" → \"BTC above $X in 1 hour\")\nKeep resolution criteria crystal clear\nPrefer questions where research gives an edge over random guessing\n2. Form Independent Estimate\n\nBefore looking at market price, estimate probability independently:\n\nBase rate: What's the historical frequency of similar events?\nInside view: What specific factors apply to THIS question?\nOutside view: What does the reference class say?\nUpdate: Adjust base rate with inside-view evidence\nSanity check: Would you bet your own money at this price?\n\nSee references/forecasting-guide.md for detailed techniques.\n\n3. Detect Edge\nedge = |your_estimate - market_price|\n\n\nOnly bet when edge > 15%. Below that, transaction costs and calibration error eat profits.\n\nIf your estimate is 70% and market says 50% → edge = 20% → BET YES\nIf your estimate is 45% and market says 50% → edge = 5% → PASS\nIf your estimate is 15% and market says 80% → edge = 65% → BET NO\n4. Size Position (Kelly Criterion)\n\nUse 1/4 Kelly for safety. Never bet more than 20% of bankroll on one market.\n\nFull Kelly: f* = (b*p - q) / b\nQuarter Kelly: bet = f* / 4 * bankroll\n\nWhere:\n p = your probability estimate\n q = 1 - p\n b = payout odds (for YES at market_prob: (1 - market_prob) / market_prob)\n\n\nSee references/kelly-criterion.md for formula details and examples.\n\n5. Execute Trade\n# Place a bet\nscripts/place-bet.sh \n\n# Create a new market\nscripts/create-market.sh \"Question title\" \"Description\" [duration_minutes]\n\n# Check your positions\nscripts/my-positions.sh\n\n6. Check & Resolve Markets\n\n⚠️ ALWAYS use the script to determine which markets have expired — NEVER do time math manually.\n\n# Check which markets actually need resolution (machine-computed timestamps)\nscripts/check-resolution-needed.sh # human-readable\nscripts/check-resolution-needed.sh --json # machine-readable\n\n# Resolve a specific market\nscripts/resolve-market.sh \n\n\nThe check-resolution-needed.sh script is the source of truth for whether a market has expired. It uses timezone-aware UTC comparison. Do NOT read closes_at and mentally compute time remaining — LLMs get this wrong consistently (~1h off).\n\n7. Bug Hunting\n\nWhile trading, notice and report:\n\nAPI errors or unexpected responses\nMissing fields in market data\nUX friction (confusing flows, unclear states)\nCPMM edge cases (rounding, extreme prices)\n\nFile issues at: shirtlessfounder/moltmarkets-api (NOT futarchy-cabal)\n\nScripts Reference\nScript\tPurpose\tArgs\ncheck-resolution-needed.sh\tCheck which markets expired (SOURCE OF TRUTH)\t--json for machine output\nscreen-markets.sh\tList open markets with flags\tnone\nplace-bet.sh\tPlace a YES/NO bet\tmarket_id, outcome, amount\ncreate-market.sh\tCreate new market\ttitle, description, [duration_min]\nresolve-market.sh\tResolve a market\tmarket_id, resolution\nmy-positions.sh\tShow balance & positions\tnone\nDetailed References\nreferences/forecasting-guide.md — Base rates, reference class forecasting, Tetlock superforecasting techniques, calibration biases\nreferences/kelly-criterion.md — Full Kelly formula, fractional Kelly, position limits, worked MoltMarkets examples\nAPI Endpoints\nMethod\tEndpoint\tPurpose\nGET\t/markets\tList all markets\nGET\t/markets/{id}\tGet single market\nPOST\t/markets\tCreate market\nPOST\t/markets/{id}/bet\tPlace bet\nPOST\t/markets/{id}/resolve\tResolve market\nGET\t/me\tUser profile + balance\nRequest/Response Formats\n\nCreate market:\n\nPOST /markets\n{\"title\": \"...\", \"description\": \"...\", \"closes_at\": \"2026-01-30T23:00:00Z\"}\n\n\nPlace bet:\n\nPOST /markets/{id}/bet\n{\"outcome\": \"YES\", \"amount\": 10}\n→ {\"shares\": 12.5, \"probability_before\": 0.50, \"probability_after\": 0.55, ...}\n\n\nResolve market:\n\nPOST /markets/{id}/resolve\n{\"resolution\": \"YES\"}" }, "trust": { "sourceLabel": "tencent", "provenanceUrl": "https://clawhub.ai/spiceoogway/moltmarkets-trader", "publisherUrl": "https://clawhub.ai/spiceoogway/moltmarkets-trader", "owner": "spiceoogway", "version": "1.0.1", "license": null, "verificationStatus": "Indexed source record" }, "links": { "detailUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/skills/moltmarkets-trader", "downloadUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/downloads/moltmarkets-trader", "agentUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/skills/moltmarkets-trader/agent", "manifestUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/skills/moltmarkets-trader/agent.json", "briefUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/skills/moltmarkets-trader/agent.md" } }