# Send Moltmarkets Trader to your agent Hand the extracted package to your coding agent with a concrete install brief instead of figuring it out manually. ## Fast path - Download the package from Yavira. - Extract it into a folder your agent can access. - Paste one of the prompts below and point your agent at the extracted folder. ## Suggested prompts ### New install ```text I downloaded a skill package from Yavira. Read SKILL.md from the extracted folder and install it by following the included instructions. Tell me what you changed and call out any manual steps you could not complete. ``` ### Upgrade existing ```text I downloaded an updated skill package from Yavira. Read SKILL.md from the extracted folder, compare it with my current installation, and upgrade it while preserving any custom configuration unless the package docs explicitly say otherwise. Summarize what changed and any follow-up checks I should run. ``` ## Machine-readable fields ```json { "schemaVersion": "1.0", "item": { "slug": "moltmarkets-trader", "name": "Moltmarkets Trader", "source": "tencent", "type": "skill", "category": "AI 智能", "sourceUrl": "https://clawhub.ai/spiceoogway/moltmarkets-trader", "canonicalUrl": "https://clawhub.ai/spiceoogway/moltmarkets-trader", "targetPlatform": "OpenClaw" }, "install": { "downloadUrl": "/downloads/moltmarkets-trader", "sourceDownloadUrl": "https://wry-manatee-359.convex.site/api/v1/download?slug=moltmarkets-trader", "sourcePlatform": "tencent", "targetPlatform": "OpenClaw", "packageFormat": "ZIP package", "primaryDoc": "SKILL.md", "includedAssets": [ "SKILL.md", "references/forecasting-guide.md", "references/kelly-criterion.md", "scripts/check-resolution-needed.sh", "scripts/create-market-with-odds.sh", "scripts/create-market.sh" ], "downloadMode": "redirect", "sourceHealth": { "source": "tencent", "status": "healthy", "reason": "direct_download_ok", "recommendedAction": "download", "checkedAt": "2026-04-30T16:55:25.780Z", "expiresAt": "2026-05-07T16:55:25.780Z", "httpStatus": 200, "finalUrl": "https://wry-manatee-359.convex.site/api/v1/download?slug=network", "contentType": "application/zip", "probeMethod": "head", "details": { "probeUrl": "https://wry-manatee-359.convex.site/api/v1/download?slug=network", "contentDisposition": "attachment; filename=\"network-1.0.0.zip\"", "redirectLocation": null, "bodySnippet": null }, "scope": "source", "summary": "Source download looks usable.", "detail": "Yavira can redirect you to the upstream package for this source.", "primaryActionLabel": "Download for OpenClaw", "primaryActionHref": "/downloads/moltmarkets-trader" }, "validation": { "installChecklist": [ "Use the Yavira download entry.", "Review SKILL.md after the package is downloaded.", "Confirm the extracted package contains the expected setup assets." ], "postInstallChecks": [ "Confirm the extracted package includes the expected docs or setup files.", "Validate the skill or prompts are available in your target agent workspace.", "Capture any manual follow-up steps the agent could not complete." ] } }, "links": { "detailUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/skills/moltmarkets-trader", "downloadUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/downloads/moltmarkets-trader", "agentUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/skills/moltmarkets-trader/agent", "manifestUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/skills/moltmarkets-trader/agent.json", "briefUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/skills/moltmarkets-trader/agent.md" } } ``` ## Documentation ### MoltMarkets Trader Trade prediction markets with edge. Screen → Research → Size → Execute → Track. ### API Basics Base URL: https://api.zcombinator.io/molt Auth: Authorization: Bearer $(cat ~/secrets/moltmarkets-api-key) Currency: ŧ (moltmarks) CPMM: Constant Product Market Maker (YES shares × NO shares = constant) ### 1. Screen Markets Run scripts/screen-markets.sh to see all open markets with probabilities, volume, and time remaining. Markets flagged as opportunities: Probability >90% or <10% (potential mispricing) Low volume (price hasn't been discovered) Closing soon (urgency for time-sensitive information) ### 1b. Market Idea Research Before creating markets, research real prediction market platforms for short-term market ideas: # Scan individual platforms scripts/scan-ideas.sh polymarket scripts/scan-ideas.sh kalshi scripts/scan-ideas.sh manifold # Scan all three scripts/scan-ideas.sh all What to look for: Markets closing within 1-24h (our sweet spot during testing) High-volume categories: crypto prices, sports, politics, tech events Questions that are verifiable and time-bound Topics interesting to agent traders (AI, crypto, tech ecosystem) Adaptation rules: Adapt the question for our 1h timeframe (e.g., "BTC above $X by midnight" → "BTC above $X in 1 hour") Keep resolution criteria crystal clear Prefer questions where research gives an edge over random guessing ### 2. Form Independent Estimate Before looking at market price, estimate probability independently: Base rate: What's the historical frequency of similar events? Inside view: What specific factors apply to THIS question? Outside view: What does the reference class say? Update: Adjust base rate with inside-view evidence Sanity check: Would you bet your own money at this price? See references/forecasting-guide.md for detailed techniques. ### 3. Detect Edge edge = |your_estimate - market_price| Only bet when edge > 15%. Below that, transaction costs and calibration error eat profits. If your estimate is 70% and market says 50% → edge = 20% → BET YES If your estimate is 45% and market says 50% → edge = 5% → PASS If your estimate is 15% and market says 80% → edge = 65% → BET NO ### 4. Size Position (Kelly Criterion) Use 1/4 Kelly for safety. Never bet more than 20% of bankroll on one market. Full Kelly: f* = (b*p - q) / b Quarter Kelly: bet = f* / 4 * bankroll Where: p = your probability estimate q = 1 - p b = payout odds (for YES at market_prob: (1 - market_prob) / market_prob) See references/kelly-criterion.md for formula details and examples. ### 5. Execute Trade # Place a bet scripts/place-bet.sh # Create a new market scripts/create-market.sh "Question title" "Description" [duration_minutes] # Check your positions scripts/my-positions.sh ### 6. Check & Resolve Markets ⚠️ ALWAYS use the script to determine which markets have expired — NEVER do time math manually. # Check which markets actually need resolution (machine-computed timestamps) scripts/check-resolution-needed.sh # human-readable scripts/check-resolution-needed.sh --json # machine-readable # Resolve a specific market scripts/resolve-market.sh The check-resolution-needed.sh script is the source of truth for whether a market has expired. It uses timezone-aware UTC comparison. Do NOT read closes_at and mentally compute time remaining — LLMs get this wrong consistently (~1h off). ### 7. Bug Hunting While trading, notice and report: API errors or unexpected responses Missing fields in market data UX friction (confusing flows, unclear states) CPMM edge cases (rounding, extreme prices) File issues at: shirtlessfounder/moltmarkets-api (NOT futarchy-cabal) ### Scripts Reference ScriptPurposeArgscheck-resolution-needed.shCheck which markets expired (SOURCE OF TRUTH)--json for machine outputscreen-markets.shList open markets with flagsnoneplace-bet.shPlace a YES/NO betmarket_id, outcome, amountcreate-market.shCreate new markettitle, description, [duration_min]resolve-market.shResolve a marketmarket_id, resolutionmy-positions.shShow balance & positionsnone ### Detailed References references/forecasting-guide.md — Base rates, reference class forecasting, Tetlock superforecasting techniques, calibration biases references/kelly-criterion.md — Full Kelly formula, fractional Kelly, position limits, worked MoltMarkets examples ### API Endpoints MethodEndpointPurposeGET/marketsList all marketsGET/markets/{id}Get single marketPOST/marketsCreate marketPOST/markets/{id}/betPlace betPOST/markets/{id}/resolveResolve marketGET/meUser profile + balance ### Request/Response Formats Create market: POST /markets {"title": "...", "description": "...", "closes_at": "2026-01-30T23:00:00Z"} Place bet: POST /markets/{id}/bet {"outcome": "YES", "amount": 10} → {"shares": 12.5, "probability_before": 0.50, "probability_after": 0.55, ...} Resolve market: POST /markets/{id}/resolve {"resolution": "YES"} ## Trust - Source: tencent - Verification: Indexed source record - Publisher: spiceoogway - Version: 1.0.1 ## Source health - Status: healthy - Source download looks usable. - Yavira can redirect you to the upstream package for this source. - Health scope: source - Reason: direct_download_ok - Checked at: 2026-04-30T16:55:25.780Z - Expires at: 2026-05-07T16:55:25.780Z - Recommended action: Download for OpenClaw ## Links - [Detail page](https://openagent3.xyz/skills/moltmarkets-trader) - [Send to Agent page](https://openagent3.xyz/skills/moltmarkets-trader/agent) - [JSON manifest](https://openagent3.xyz/skills/moltmarkets-trader/agent.json) - [Markdown brief](https://openagent3.xyz/skills/moltmarkets-trader/agent.md) - [Download page](https://openagent3.xyz/downloads/moltmarkets-trader)