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    "name": "Polymarket Ai Divergence",
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    "sections": [
      {
        "title": "Polymarket AI Divergence Trader",
        "body": "Find markets where Simmer's AI consensus diverges from the real market price, then trade the edge.\n\nThis is a template. The default logic trades when AI divergence exceeds 2% on zero-fee markets, using Kelly sizing capped at 25%. Remix it with different edge thresholds, sizing strategies, or additional filters (e.g., only trade markets resolving within 7 days). The skill handles plumbing (divergence scanning, fee checks, safeguards, execution). Your agent provides the alpha."
      },
      {
        "title": "What It Does",
        "body": "Scans all active markets for AI vs market price divergence\nFilters to markets with edge above threshold (default 2%) and zero fees\nChecks safeguards (flip-flop detection, existing positions)\nSizes using Kelly criterion, capped conservatively\nExecutes trades on the mispriced side (YES when AI is bullish, NO when bearish)"
      },
      {
        "title": "Quick Commands",
        "body": "# Scan only (dry run, no trades)\npython ai_divergence.py\n\n# Scan + execute trades\npython ai_divergence.py --live\n\n# Only show bullish divergences\npython ai_divergence.py --bullish\n\n# Only >15% divergence\npython ai_divergence.py --min 15\n\n# JSON output\npython ai_divergence.py --json\n\n# Cron mode (quiet, trades only)\npython ai_divergence.py --live --quiet\n\n# Show config\npython ai_divergence.py --config\n\n# Update config\npython ai_divergence.py --set max_bet_usd=10"
      },
      {
        "title": "Configuration",
        "body": "KeyEnv VarDefaultDescriptionmin_divergenceSIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MIN5.0Min divergence % for scanner displaymin_edgeSIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MIN_EDGE0.02Min divergence to trade (2%)max_bet_usdSIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MAX_BET5.0Max bet per trademax_trades_per_runSIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MAX_TRADES3Max trades per cyclekelly_capSIMMER_DIVERGENCE_KELLY_CAP0.25Kelly fraction capdaily_budgetSIMMER_DIVERGENCE_DAILY_BUDGET25.0Daily spend limitdefault_directionSIMMER_DIVERGENCE_DIRECTION(both)Filter: \"bullish\" or \"bearish\"\n\nUpdate via CLI: python ai_divergence.py --set max_bet_usd=10"
      },
      {
        "title": "Divergence Signal",
        "body": "Each imported market has two prices:\n\nAI consensus (current_probability) — Simmer's AI consensus price, derived from multi-model ensemble forecasting\nExternal price (external_price_yes) — Real market price on Polymarket/Kalshi\n\ndivergence = AI consensus - external price\n\nWhen divergence > 0: AI thinks the market is underpriced → buy YES\nWhen divergence < 0: AI thinks the market is overpriced → buy NO"
      },
      {
        "title": "Kelly Sizing",
        "body": "Position size uses the Kelly criterion:\n\nkelly_fraction = edge / (1 - price)\nposition_size = kelly_fraction * max_bet_usd\n\nCapped at kelly_cap (default 25%) to limit risk."
      },
      {
        "title": "Fee Filtering",
        "body": "75% of Polymarket markets have 0% fees. The remaining 25% charge 10% (short-duration crypto/sports). This skill only trades zero-fee markets to avoid fee drag eroding the edge."
      },
      {
        "title": "Safeguards",
        "body": "Fee check: Skips markets with any taker fee\nFlip-flop detection: Uses SDK's context API to detect contradictory trades\nPosition check: Skips markets where you already hold a position\nDaily budget: Stops trading when daily spend limit is reached\nKelly sizing: Conservative sizing prevents over-betting"
      },
      {
        "title": "API Endpoints Used",
        "body": "GET /api/sdk/markets/opportunities — Divergence-ranked market list\nGET /api/sdk/context/{market_id} — Fee rate and safeguards per market\nPOST /api/sdk/trade — Trade execution (via SDK client)\nGET /api/sdk/positions — Current portfolio positions"
      },
      {
        "title": "Troubleshooting",
        "body": "\"No markets above min edge threshold\"\n→ All divergences are below the min_edge setting. Lower it with --set min_edge=0.01 or wait for larger divergences.\n\n\"Daily budget exhausted\"\n→ The skill has hit its daily spend limit. Adjust with --set daily_budget=50.\n\nAll markets skipped for fees\n→ Only zero-fee markets are traded. If all available divergence opportunities have fees, no trades execute. This is by design.\n\n\"context fetch failed\"\n→ The SDK context endpoint is rate-limited (18 req/min). If running frequently, reduce max_trades_per_run."
      }
    ],
    "body": "Polymarket AI Divergence Trader\n\nFind markets where Simmer's AI consensus diverges from the real market price, then trade the edge.\n\nThis is a template. The default logic trades when AI divergence exceeds 2% on zero-fee markets, using Kelly sizing capped at 25%. Remix it with different edge thresholds, sizing strategies, or additional filters (e.g., only trade markets resolving within 7 days). The skill handles plumbing (divergence scanning, fee checks, safeguards, execution). Your agent provides the alpha.\n\nWhat It Does\nScans all active markets for AI vs market price divergence\nFilters to markets with edge above threshold (default 2%) and zero fees\nChecks safeguards (flip-flop detection, existing positions)\nSizes using Kelly criterion, capped conservatively\nExecutes trades on the mispriced side (YES when AI is bullish, NO when bearish)\nQuick Commands\n# Scan only (dry run, no trades)\npython ai_divergence.py\n\n# Scan + execute trades\npython ai_divergence.py --live\n\n# Only show bullish divergences\npython ai_divergence.py --bullish\n\n# Only >15% divergence\npython ai_divergence.py --min 15\n\n# JSON output\npython ai_divergence.py --json\n\n# Cron mode (quiet, trades only)\npython ai_divergence.py --live --quiet\n\n# Show config\npython ai_divergence.py --config\n\n# Update config\npython ai_divergence.py --set max_bet_usd=10\n\nConfiguration\nKey\tEnv Var\tDefault\tDescription\nmin_divergence\tSIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MIN\t5.0\tMin divergence % for scanner display\nmin_edge\tSIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MIN_EDGE\t0.02\tMin divergence to trade (2%)\nmax_bet_usd\tSIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MAX_BET\t5.0\tMax bet per trade\nmax_trades_per_run\tSIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MAX_TRADES\t3\tMax trades per cycle\nkelly_cap\tSIMMER_DIVERGENCE_KELLY_CAP\t0.25\tKelly fraction cap\ndaily_budget\tSIMMER_DIVERGENCE_DAILY_BUDGET\t25.0\tDaily spend limit\ndefault_direction\tSIMMER_DIVERGENCE_DIRECTION\t(both)\tFilter: \"bullish\" or \"bearish\"\n\nUpdate via CLI: python ai_divergence.py --set max_bet_usd=10\n\nHow It Works\nDivergence Signal\n\nEach imported market has two prices:\n\nAI consensus (current_probability) — Simmer's AI consensus price, derived from multi-model ensemble forecasting\nExternal price (external_price_yes) — Real market price on Polymarket/Kalshi\n\ndivergence = AI consensus - external price\n\nWhen divergence > 0: AI thinks the market is underpriced → buy YES When divergence < 0: AI thinks the market is overpriced → buy NO\n\nKelly Sizing\n\nPosition size uses the Kelly criterion:\n\nkelly_fraction = edge / (1 - price)\nposition_size = kelly_fraction * max_bet_usd\n\n\nCapped at kelly_cap (default 25%) to limit risk.\n\nFee Filtering\n\n75% of Polymarket markets have 0% fees. The remaining 25% charge 10% (short-duration crypto/sports). This skill only trades zero-fee markets to avoid fee drag eroding the edge.\n\nSafeguards\nFee check: Skips markets with any taker fee\nFlip-flop detection: Uses SDK's context API to detect contradictory trades\nPosition check: Skips markets where you already hold a position\nDaily budget: Stops trading when daily spend limit is reached\nKelly sizing: Conservative sizing prevents over-betting\nAPI Endpoints Used\nGET /api/sdk/markets/opportunities — Divergence-ranked market list\nGET /api/sdk/context/{market_id} — Fee rate and safeguards per market\nPOST /api/sdk/trade — Trade execution (via SDK client)\nGET /api/sdk/positions — Current portfolio positions\nTroubleshooting\n\n\"No markets above min edge threshold\" → All divergences are below the min_edge setting. Lower it with --set min_edge=0.01 or wait for larger divergences.\n\n\"Daily budget exhausted\" → The skill has hit its daily spend limit. Adjust with --set daily_budget=50.\n\nAll markets skipped for fees → Only zero-fee markets are traded. If all available divergence opportunities have fees, no trades execute. This is by design.\n\n\"context fetch failed\" → The SDK context endpoint is rate-limited (18 req/min). If running frequently, reduce max_trades_per_run."
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    "provenanceUrl": "https://clawhub.ai/adlai88/polymarket-ai-divergence",
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    "owner": "adlai88",
    "version": "2.2.1",
    "license": null,
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