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    "name": "Polymarket Arbitrage",
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    "steps": [
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      "Extract it into a folder your agent can access.",
      "Paste one of the prompts below and point your agent at the extracted folder."
    ],
    "prompts": [
      {
        "label": "New install",
        "body": "I downloaded a skill package from Yavira. Read SKILL.md from the extracted folder and install it by following the included instructions. Tell me what you changed and call out any manual steps you could not complete."
      },
      {
        "label": "Upgrade existing",
        "body": "I downloaded an updated skill package from Yavira. Read SKILL.md from the extracted folder, compare it with my current installation, and upgrade it while preserving any custom configuration unless the package docs explicitly say otherwise. Summarize what changed and any follow-up checks I should run."
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  "documentation": {
    "source": "clawhub",
    "primaryDoc": "SKILL.md",
    "sections": [
      {
        "title": "Polymarket Arbitrage",
        "body": "Find and execute arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket prediction markets."
      },
      {
        "title": "1. Paper Trading (Recommended First Step)",
        "body": "Run a single scan to see current opportunities:\n\ncd skills/polymarket-arbitrage\npip install requests beautifulsoup4\npython scripts/monitor.py --once --min-edge 3.0\n\nView results in polymarket_data/arbs.json"
      },
      {
        "title": "2. Continuous Monitoring",
        "body": "Monitor every 5 minutes and alert on new opportunities:\n\npython scripts/monitor.py --interval 300 --min-edge 3.0\n\nStop with Ctrl+C"
      },
      {
        "title": "3. Understanding Results",
        "body": "Each detected arbitrage includes:\n\nnet_profit_pct: Edge after 2% fees\nrisk_score: 0-100, lower is better\nvolume: Market liquidity\naction: What to do (buy/sell all outcomes)\n\nGood opportunities:\n\nNet profit: 3-5%+\nRisk score: <50\nVolume: $1M+\nType: math_arb_buy (safer)"
      },
      {
        "title": "Math Arbitrage (Primary Focus)",
        "body": "Type A: Buy All Outcomes (prob sum < 100%)\n\nSafest type\nGuaranteed profit if executable\nExample: 48% + 45% = 93% → 7% edge, ~5% net after fees\n\nType B: Sell All Outcomes (prob sum > 100%)\n\nRiskier (requires liquidity)\nNeed capital to collateralize\nAvoid until experienced\n\nSee references/arbitrage_types.md for detailed examples and strategies."
      },
      {
        "title": "Cross-Market Arbitrage",
        "body": "Same event priced differently across markets (not yet implemented - requires semantic matching)."
      },
      {
        "title": "Orderbook Arbitrage",
        "body": "Requires real-time orderbook data (homepage shows midpoints, not executable prices)."
      },
      {
        "title": "fetch_markets.py",
        "body": "Scrape Polymarket homepage for active markets.\n\npython scripts/fetch_markets.py --output markets.json --min-volume 50000\n\nReturns JSON with market probabilities, volumes, and metadata."
      },
      {
        "title": "detect_arbitrage.py",
        "body": "Analyze markets for arbitrage opportunities.\n\npython scripts/detect_arbitrage.py markets.json --min-edge 3.0 --output arbs.json\n\nAccounts for:\n\n2% taker fees (per leg)\nMulti-outcome fee multiplication\nRisk scoring"
      },
      {
        "title": "monitor.py",
        "body": "Continuous monitoring with alerting.\n\npython scripts/monitor.py --interval 300 --min-edge 3.0 [--alert-webhook URL]\n\nFeatures:\n\nFetches markets every interval\nDetects arbitrage\nAlerts on NEW opportunities only (deduplicates)\nSaves state to polymarket_data/"
      },
      {
        "title": "Phase 1: Paper Trading (1-2 weeks)",
        "body": "Goal: Understand opportunity frequency and quality\n\nRun monitor 2-3x per day\nLog opportunities in spreadsheet\nCheck if they're still available when you look\nCalculate what profit would have been\n\nDecision point: If seeing 3-5 good opportunities per week, proceed to Phase 2."
      },
      {
        "title": "Phase 2: Micro Testing ($50-100 CAD)",
        "body": "Goal: Learn platform mechanics\n\nCreate Polymarket account\nDeposit $50-100 in USDC\nManual trades only (no automation)\nMax $5-10 per opportunity\nTrack every trade in spreadsheet\n\nDecision point: If profitable after 20+ trades, proceed to Phase 3."
      },
      {
        "title": "Phase 3: Scale Up ($500 CAD)",
        "body": "Goal: Increase position sizes\n\nIncrease bankroll to $500\nMax 5% per trade ($25)\nStill manual execution\nImplement strict risk management"
      },
      {
        "title": "Phase 4: Automation (Future)",
        "body": "Requires:\n\nWallet integration (private key management)\nPolymarket API or browser automation\nExecution logic\nMonitoring infrastructure\n\nOnly consider after consistently profitable manual trading.\n\nSee references/getting_started.md for detailed setup instructions."
      },
      {
        "title": "Critical Rules",
        "body": "Maximum position size: 5% of bankroll per opportunity\nMinimum edge: 3% net (after fees)\nDaily loss limit: 10% of bankroll\nFocus on buy arbs: Avoid sell-side until experienced"
      },
      {
        "title": "Red Flags",
        "body": "Edge >10% (likely stale data)\nVolume <$100k (liquidity risk)\nProbabilities recently updated (arb might close)\nSell-side arbs (capital + liquidity requirements)"
      },
      {
        "title": "Fee Structure",
        "body": "Polymarket charges:\n\nMaker fee: 0%\nTaker fee: 2%\n\nConservative assumption: 2% per leg (assume taker)\n\nBreakeven calculation:\n\n2-outcome market: 2% × 2 = 4% gross edge needed\n3-outcome market: 2% × 3 = 6% gross edge needed\nN-outcome market: 2% × N gross edge needed\n\nTarget: 3-5% NET profit (after fees)"
      },
      {
        "title": "\"High edge but disappeared\"",
        "body": "Homepage probabilities are stale or represent midpoints, not executable prices. This is normal. Real arbs disappear in seconds."
      },
      {
        "title": "\"Can't execute at displayed price\"",
        "body": "Liquidity issue. Low-volume markets show misleading probabilities. Stick to $1M+ volume markets."
      },
      {
        "title": "\"Edge is too small after fees\"",
        "body": "Increase --min-edge threshold. Try 4-5% for more conservative filtering."
      },
      {
        "title": "Files and Data",
        "body": "All monitoring data stored in ./polymarket_data/:\n\nmarkets.json - Latest market scan\narbs.json - Detected opportunities\nalert_state.json - Deduplication state (which arbs already alerted)"
      },
      {
        "title": "Telegram Integration (Future)",
        "body": "Pass webhook URL to monitor script for alerts:\n\npython scripts/monitor.py --alert-webhook \"https://api.telegram.org/bot<token>/sendMessage?chat_id=<id>\""
      },
      {
        "title": "Position Sizing",
        "body": "For a 2-outcome math arb with probabilities p₁ and p₂ where p₁ + p₂ < 100%:\n\nOptimal allocation:\n\nBet on outcome 1: (100% / p₁) / [(100%/p₁) + (100%/p₂)] of capital\nBet on outcome 2: (100% / p₂) / [(100%/p₁) + (100%/p₂)] of capital\n\nThis ensures equal profit regardless of which outcome wins.\n\nSimplified rule: For small edges, split capital evenly across outcomes."
      },
      {
        "title": "Execution Speed",
        "body": "Arbs disappear fast. If planning automation:\n\nUse websocket connections (not polling)\nPlace limit orders simultaneously\nHave capital pre-deposited\nMonitor gas fees on Polygon"
      },
      {
        "title": "Resources",
        "body": "Polymarket: https://polymarket.com\nDocumentation: https://docs.polymarket.com\nAPI (if available): Check Polymarket docs\nCommunity: Polymarket Discord"
      },
      {
        "title": "Support",
        "body": "For skill issues:\n\nCheck references/arbitrage_types.md for strategy details\nCheck references/getting_started.md for setup help\nReview output files in polymarket_data/\nEnsure dependencies installed: pip install requests beautifulsoup4"
      }
    ],
    "body": "Polymarket Arbitrage\n\nFind and execute arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket prediction markets.\n\nQuick Start\n1. Paper Trading (Recommended First Step)\n\nRun a single scan to see current opportunities:\n\ncd skills/polymarket-arbitrage\npip install requests beautifulsoup4\npython scripts/monitor.py --once --min-edge 3.0\n\n\nView results in polymarket_data/arbs.json\n\n2. Continuous Monitoring\n\nMonitor every 5 minutes and alert on new opportunities:\n\npython scripts/monitor.py --interval 300 --min-edge 3.0\n\n\nStop with Ctrl+C\n\n3. Understanding Results\n\nEach detected arbitrage includes:\n\nnet_profit_pct: Edge after 2% fees\nrisk_score: 0-100, lower is better\nvolume: Market liquidity\naction: What to do (buy/sell all outcomes)\n\nGood opportunities:\n\nNet profit: 3-5%+\nRisk score: <50\nVolume: $1M+\nType: math_arb_buy (safer)\nArbitrage Types Detected\nMath Arbitrage (Primary Focus)\n\nType A: Buy All Outcomes (prob sum < 100%)\n\nSafest type\nGuaranteed profit if executable\nExample: 48% + 45% = 93% → 7% edge, ~5% net after fees\n\nType B: Sell All Outcomes (prob sum > 100%)\n\nRiskier (requires liquidity)\nNeed capital to collateralize\nAvoid until experienced\n\nSee references/arbitrage_types.md for detailed examples and strategies.\n\nCross-Market Arbitrage\n\nSame event priced differently across markets (not yet implemented - requires semantic matching).\n\nOrderbook Arbitrage\n\nRequires real-time orderbook data (homepage shows midpoints, not executable prices).\n\nScripts\nfetch_markets.py\n\nScrape Polymarket homepage for active markets.\n\npython scripts/fetch_markets.py --output markets.json --min-volume 50000\n\n\nReturns JSON with market probabilities, volumes, and metadata.\n\ndetect_arbitrage.py\n\nAnalyze markets for arbitrage opportunities.\n\npython scripts/detect_arbitrage.py markets.json --min-edge 3.0 --output arbs.json\n\n\nAccounts for:\n\n2% taker fees (per leg)\nMulti-outcome fee multiplication\nRisk scoring\nmonitor.py\n\nContinuous monitoring with alerting.\n\npython scripts/monitor.py --interval 300 --min-edge 3.0 [--alert-webhook URL]\n\n\nFeatures:\n\nFetches markets every interval\nDetects arbitrage\nAlerts on NEW opportunities only (deduplicates)\nSaves state to polymarket_data/\nWorkflow Phases\nPhase 1: Paper Trading (1-2 weeks)\n\nGoal: Understand opportunity frequency and quality\n\nRun monitor 2-3x per day\nLog opportunities in spreadsheet\nCheck if they're still available when you look\nCalculate what profit would have been\n\nDecision point: If seeing 3-5 good opportunities per week, proceed to Phase 2.\n\nPhase 2: Micro Testing ($50-100 CAD)\n\nGoal: Learn platform mechanics\n\nCreate Polymarket account\nDeposit $50-100 in USDC\nManual trades only (no automation)\nMax $5-10 per opportunity\nTrack every trade in spreadsheet\n\nDecision point: If profitable after 20+ trades, proceed to Phase 3.\n\nPhase 3: Scale Up ($500 CAD)\n\nGoal: Increase position sizes\n\nIncrease bankroll to $500\nMax 5% per trade ($25)\nStill manual execution\nImplement strict risk management\nPhase 4: Automation (Future)\n\nRequires:\n\nWallet integration (private key management)\nPolymarket API or browser automation\nExecution logic\nMonitoring infrastructure\n\nOnly consider after consistently profitable manual trading.\n\nSee references/getting_started.md for detailed setup instructions.\n\nRisk Management\nCritical Rules\nMaximum position size: 5% of bankroll per opportunity\nMinimum edge: 3% net (after fees)\nDaily loss limit: 10% of bankroll\nFocus on buy arbs: Avoid sell-side until experienced\nRed Flags\nEdge >10% (likely stale data)\nVolume <$100k (liquidity risk)\nProbabilities recently updated (arb might close)\nSell-side arbs (capital + liquidity requirements)\nFee Structure\n\nPolymarket charges:\n\nMaker fee: 0%\nTaker fee: 2%\n\nConservative assumption: 2% per leg (assume taker)\n\nBreakeven calculation:\n\n2-outcome market: 2% × 2 = 4% gross edge needed\n3-outcome market: 2% × 3 = 6% gross edge needed\nN-outcome market: 2% × N gross edge needed\n\nTarget: 3-5% NET profit (after fees)\n\nCommon Issues\n\"High edge but disappeared\"\n\nHomepage probabilities are stale or represent midpoints, not executable prices. This is normal. Real arbs disappear in seconds.\n\n\"Can't execute at displayed price\"\n\nLiquidity issue. Low-volume markets show misleading probabilities. Stick to $1M+ volume markets.\n\n\"Edge is too small after fees\"\n\nIncrease --min-edge threshold. Try 4-5% for more conservative filtering.\n\nFiles and Data\n\nAll monitoring data stored in ./polymarket_data/:\n\nmarkets.json - Latest market scan\narbs.json - Detected opportunities\nalert_state.json - Deduplication state (which arbs already alerted)\nAdvanced Topics\nTelegram Integration (Future)\n\nPass webhook URL to monitor script for alerts:\n\npython scripts/monitor.py --alert-webhook \"https://api.telegram.org/bot<token>/sendMessage?chat_id=<id>\"\n\nPosition Sizing\n\nFor a 2-outcome math arb with probabilities p₁ and p₂ where p₁ + p₂ < 100%:\n\nOptimal allocation:\n\nBet on outcome 1: (100% / p₁) / [(100%/p₁) + (100%/p₂)] of capital\nBet on outcome 2: (100% / p₂) / [(100%/p₁) + (100%/p₂)] of capital\n\nThis ensures equal profit regardless of which outcome wins.\n\nSimplified rule: For small edges, split capital evenly across outcomes.\n\nExecution Speed\n\nArbs disappear fast. If planning automation:\n\nUse websocket connections (not polling)\nPlace limit orders simultaneously\nHave capital pre-deposited\nMonitor gas fees on Polygon\nResources\nPolymarket: https://polymarket.com\nDocumentation: https://docs.polymarket.com\nAPI (if available): Check Polymarket docs\nCommunity: Polymarket Discord\nSupport\n\nFor skill issues:\n\nCheck references/arbitrage_types.md for strategy details\nCheck references/getting_started.md for setup help\nReview output files in polymarket_data/\nEnsure dependencies installed: pip install requests beautifulsoup4"
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    "publisherUrl": "https://clawhub.ai/JohnY0920/polymarket-arbitrage",
    "owner": "JohnY0920",
    "version": "0.1.0",
    "license": null,
    "verificationStatus": "Indexed source record"
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