{ "schemaVersion": "1.0", "item": { "slug": "polymarket-elon-tweets", "name": "Polymarket Elon Tweets", "source": "tencent", "type": "skill", "category": "AI 智能", "sourceUrl": "https://clawhub.ai/adlai88/polymarket-elon-tweets", "canonicalUrl": "https://clawhub.ai/adlai88/polymarket-elon-tweets", "targetPlatform": "OpenClaw" }, "install": { "downloadMode": "redirect", "downloadUrl": "/downloads/polymarket-elon-tweets", "sourceDownloadUrl": "https://wry-manatee-359.convex.site/api/v1/download?slug=polymarket-elon-tweets", "sourcePlatform": "tencent", "targetPlatform": "OpenClaw", "installMethod": "Manual import", "extraction": "Extract archive", "prerequisites": [ "OpenClaw" ], "packageFormat": "ZIP package", "includedAssets": [ "SKILL.md", "clawhub.json", "config.json", "elon_tweets.py", "scripts/status.py" ], "primaryDoc": "SKILL.md", "quickSetup": [ "Download the package from Yavira.", "Extract the archive and review SKILL.md first.", "Import or place the package into your OpenClaw setup." ], "agentAssist": { "summary": "Hand the extracted package to your coding agent with a concrete install brief instead of figuring it out manually.", "steps": [ "Download the package from Yavira.", "Extract it into a folder your agent can access.", "Paste one of the prompts below and point your agent at the extracted folder." ], "prompts": [ { "label": "New install", "body": "I downloaded a skill package from Yavira. Read SKILL.md from the extracted folder and install it by following the included instructions. Tell me what you changed and call out any manual steps you could not complete." }, { "label": "Upgrade existing", "body": "I downloaded an updated skill package from Yavira. Read SKILL.md from the extracted folder, compare it with my current installation, and upgrade it while preserving any custom configuration unless the package docs explicitly say otherwise. Summarize what changed and any follow-up checks I should run." } ] }, "sourceHealth": { "source": "tencent", "status": "healthy", "reason": "direct_download_ok", "recommendedAction": "download", "checkedAt": "2026-04-30T16:55:25.780Z", "expiresAt": "2026-05-07T16:55:25.780Z", "httpStatus": 200, "finalUrl": "https://wry-manatee-359.convex.site/api/v1/download?slug=network", "contentType": "application/zip", "probeMethod": "head", "details": { "probeUrl": "https://wry-manatee-359.convex.site/api/v1/download?slug=network", "contentDisposition": "attachment; filename=\"network-1.0.0.zip\"", "redirectLocation": null, "bodySnippet": null }, "scope": "source", "summary": "Source download looks usable.", "detail": "Yavira can redirect you to the upstream package for this source.", "primaryActionLabel": "Download for OpenClaw", "primaryActionHref": "/downloads/polymarket-elon-tweets" }, "validation": { "installChecklist": [ "Use the Yavira download entry.", "Review SKILL.md after the package is downloaded.", "Confirm the extracted package contains the expected setup assets." ], "postInstallChecks": [ "Confirm the extracted package includes the expected docs or setup files.", "Validate the skill or prompts are available in your target agent workspace.", "Capture any manual follow-up steps the agent could not complete." ] }, "downloadPageUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/downloads/polymarket-elon-tweets", "agentPageUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/skills/polymarket-elon-tweets/agent", "manifestUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/skills/polymarket-elon-tweets/agent.json", "briefUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/skills/polymarket-elon-tweets/agent.md" }, "agentAssist": { "summary": "Hand the extracted package to your coding agent with a concrete install brief instead of figuring it out manually.", "steps": [ "Download the package from Yavira.", "Extract it into a folder your agent can access.", "Paste one of the prompts below and point your agent at the extracted folder." ], "prompts": [ { "label": "New install", "body": "I downloaded a skill package from Yavira. Read SKILL.md from the extracted folder and install it by following the included instructions. Tell me what you changed and call out any manual steps you could not complete." }, { "label": "Upgrade existing", "body": "I downloaded an updated skill package from Yavira. Read SKILL.md from the extracted folder, compare it with my current installation, and upgrade it while preserving any custom configuration unless the package docs explicitly say otherwise. Summarize what changed and any follow-up checks I should run." } ] }, "documentation": { "source": "clawhub", "primaryDoc": "SKILL.md", "sections": [ { "title": "Polymarket Elon Tweet Trader", "body": "Trade \"Elon Musk # tweets\" markets on Polymarket using XTracker post count data." }, { "title": "When to Use This Skill", "body": "Use this skill when the user wants to:\n\nTrade Elon Musk tweet count markets automatically\nSet up @noovd-style bucket trading\nCheck XTracker pace and stats for current tweet events\nMonitor and exit existing tweet market positions\nConfigure bucket spread or entry thresholds" }, { "title": "How the Strategy Works", "body": "Polymarket runs weekly \"How many tweets will Elon post?\" events with range buckets (e.g., 200-219, 220-239, 240-259). Exactly one bucket resolves YES = $1. The strategy:\n\nGet XTracker pace — XTracker tracks Elon's real-time post count and projects the final total\nFind center bucket — The bucket containing XTracker's projected pace\nBuy adjacent buckets — Buy the center + neighbors (configurable spread)\nCheck combined cost — Only buy if the sum of bucket prices < $1 (the +EV threshold)\nOne bucket pays $1 — When the event resolves, one of your buckets pays $1, covering costs" }, { "title": "Setup Flow", "body": "When user asks to install or configure this skill:\n\nInstall the Simmer SDK\npip install simmer-sdk\n\n\n\nAsk for Simmer API key\n\nThey can get it from simmer.markets/dashboard → SDK tab\nStore in environment as SIMMER_API_KEY\n\n\n\nAsk for wallet private key (required for live trading)\n\nThis is the private key for their Polymarket wallet (the wallet that holds USDC)\nStore in environment as WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY\nThe SDK uses this to sign orders client-side automatically — no manual signing needed\n\n\n\nAsk about settings (or confirm defaults)\n\nMax bucket sum: Combined price threshold (default 90¢)\nMax position: Amount per bucket (default $5.00)\nBucket spread: How many neighbors to buy (default 1 = center ± 1)\nExit threshold: When to sell (default 65¢)\n\n\n\nSave settings to config.json or environment variables\n\n\nSet up cron (disabled by default — user must enable scheduling)" }, { "title": "Configuration", "body": "SettingEnv VariableConfig KeyDefaultDescriptionMax bucket sumSIMMER_ELON_MAX_BUCKET_SUMmax_bucket_sum0.90Only buy if cluster prices sum < thisMax positionSIMMER_ELON_MAX_POSITIONmax_position_usd5.00Maximum USD per bucketBucket spreadSIMMER_ELON_BUCKET_SPREADbucket_spread1Neighbors on each side (1 = 3 buckets)Smart sizing %SIMMER_ELON_SIZING_PCTsizing_pct0.05% of balance per tradeMax trades/runSIMMER_ELON_MAX_TRADESmax_trades_per_run6Maximum trades per scan cycleExit thresholdSIMMER_ELON_EXITexit_threshold0.65Sell when bucket price above thisSlippage maxSIMMER_ELON_SLIPPAGE_MAXslippage_max_pct0.05Skip trade if slippage exceeds thisMin positionSIMMER_ELON_MIN_POSITIONmin_position_usd2.00Floor for smart sizing (USD)Data sourceSIMMER_ELON_DATA_SOURCEdata_sourcextrackerData source (xtracker)\n\nConfig priority: config.json > environment variables > defaults." }, { "title": "Quick Commands", "body": "# Check account balance and positions\npython scripts/status.py\n\n# Detailed position list\npython scripts/status.py --positions\n\nAPI Reference:\n\nBase URL: https://api.simmer.markets\nAuth: Authorization: Bearer $SIMMER_API_KEY\nPortfolio: GET /api/sdk/portfolio\nPositions: GET /api/sdk/positions" }, { "title": "Running the Skill", "body": "# Dry run (default — shows opportunities, no trades)\npython elon_tweets.py\n\n# Execute real trades\npython elon_tweets.py --live\n\n# With smart position sizing (uses portfolio balance)\npython elon_tweets.py --live --smart-sizing\n\n# Show XTracker stats only\npython elon_tweets.py --stats\n\n# Check positions only\npython elon_tweets.py --positions\n\n# View config\npython elon_tweets.py --config\n\n# Update config\npython elon_tweets.py --set max_position_usd=10.00\n\n# Disable safeguards (not recommended)\npython elon_tweets.py --no-safeguards\n\n# Quiet mode — only output on trades/errors (ideal for cron)\npython elon_tweets.py --live --quiet\n\n# Combine: frequent scanning, minimal noise\npython elon_tweets.py --live --smart-sizing --quiet" }, { "title": "How It Works", "body": "Each cycle the script:\n\nFetches active XTracker trackings for Elon Musk tweet events\nGets real-time stats: current count, projected pace, days remaining\nSearches Simmer for matching tweet count markets (auto-imports if missing)\nFinds the bucket matching XTracker's pace projection\nEvaluates adjacent buckets (center ± spread)\nEntry: If sum of cluster prices < max_bucket_sum → BUY each bucket\nExit: Checks open positions, sells if any bucket price > exit_threshold\nSafeguards: Checks context for flip-flop warnings, slippage\nTagging: All trades tagged with sdk:elon-tweets for tracking" }, { "title": "Auto-Import", "body": "If tweet count markets aren't on Simmer yet, the skill automatically imports them:\n\nDerives the Polymarket event URL from the XTracker tracking title\nUses the SDK import endpoint (supports multi-outcome events)\nImports all outcome buckets as a group\nCounts as 1 daily import regardless of bucket count" }, { "title": "Smart Sizing", "body": "With --smart-sizing, position size is calculated as:\n\n5% of available USDC balance (configurable via sizing_pct)\nCapped at max position setting ($5.00 default)\nFalls back to fixed size if portfolio unavailable" }, { "title": "Safeguards", "body": "Before trading, the skill checks:\n\nFlip-flop warning: Skips if you've been reversing too much\nSlippage: Skips if estimated slippage > 15%\nMarket status: Skips closed or resolved markets\nExtreme prices: Skips buckets priced > 98% or < 2%\n\nDisable with --no-safeguards (not recommended)." }, { "title": "Source Tagging", "body": "All trades are tagged with source: \"sdk:elon-tweets\". This means:\n\nPortfolio shows breakdown by strategy\nOther skills won't sell your tweet positions\nYou can track tweet trading P&L separately" }, { "title": "Example Output", "body": "🐦 Simmer Elon Tweet Trader\n==================================================\n\n⚙️ Configuration:\n Max bucket sum: $0.90\n Max position: $5.00\n Bucket spread: 1 (center ± 1 = 3 buckets)\n Exit threshold: 65%\n Data source: xtracker\n\n📊 XTracker Stats:\n Tracking: Elon Musk # tweets Feb 13 - Feb 20\n Current count: 187 posts\n Pace: 243 projected\n Days remaining: 2.3\n\n🎯 Target cluster: 240-259 (center) + 220-239, 260-279\n 240-259: $0.35\n 220-239: $0.22\n 260-279: $0.18\n Cluster sum: $0.75 (< $0.90 threshold) ✅\n\n Executing trades...\n ✅ Bought 14.3 shares of 240-259 @ $0.35\n ✅ Bought 22.7 shares of 220-239 @ $0.22\n ✅ Bought 27.8 shares of 260-279 @ $0.18\n\n📊 Summary:\n Events scanned: 2\n Clusters evaluated: 2\n Trades executed: 3\n Exits: 0" }, { "title": "Troubleshooting", "body": "\"No XTracker trackings found\"\n\nXTracker may not have active Elon tweet events\nNew events usually start on Wednesdays/Thursdays\n\n\"Cluster sum $X.XX exceeds threshold\"\n\nBuckets are too expensive — edge is too thin\nWait for prices to drop or widen bucket_spread\n\n\"No matching Simmer markets found\"\n\nMarkets may not be imported yet — skill will auto-import on next run\nCheck that your API key has import capacity (10/day free, 50/day Pro)\n\n\"Safeguard blocked: flip-flop warning\"\n\nYou've been changing direction too much on this market\nWait before trading again\n\n\"External wallet requires a pre-signed order\"\n\nWALLET_PRIVATE_KEY is not set in the environment\nThe SDK signs orders automatically when this env var is present — no manual signing code needed\nFix: export WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY=0x\nDo NOT attempt to sign orders manually or modify the skill code — the SDK handles it\n\n\"Balance shows $0 but I have USDC on Polygon\"\n\nPolymarket uses USDC.e (bridged USDC, contract 0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174) — not native USDC\nIf you bridged USDC to Polygon recently, you likely received native USDC\nSwap native USDC to USDC.e, then retry\n\n\"API key invalid\"\n\nGet new key from simmer.markets/dashboard → SDK tab" } ], "body": "Polymarket Elon Tweet Trader\n\nTrade \"Elon Musk # tweets\" markets on Polymarket using XTracker post count data.\n\nWhen to Use This Skill\n\nUse this skill when the user wants to:\n\nTrade Elon Musk tweet count markets automatically\nSet up @noovd-style bucket trading\nCheck XTracker pace and stats for current tweet events\nMonitor and exit existing tweet market positions\nConfigure bucket spread or entry thresholds\nHow the Strategy Works\n\nPolymarket runs weekly \"How many tweets will Elon post?\" events with range buckets (e.g., 200-219, 220-239, 240-259). Exactly one bucket resolves YES = $1. The strategy:\n\nGet XTracker pace — XTracker tracks Elon's real-time post count and projects the final total\nFind center bucket — The bucket containing XTracker's projected pace\nBuy adjacent buckets — Buy the center + neighbors (configurable spread)\nCheck combined cost — Only buy if the sum of bucket prices < $1 (the +EV threshold)\nOne bucket pays $1 — When the event resolves, one of your buckets pays $1, covering costs\nSetup Flow\n\nWhen user asks to install or configure this skill:\n\nInstall the Simmer SDK\n\npip install simmer-sdk\n\n\nAsk for Simmer API key\n\nThey can get it from simmer.markets/dashboard → SDK tab\nStore in environment as SIMMER_API_KEY\n\nAsk for wallet private key (required for live trading)\n\nThis is the private key for their Polymarket wallet (the wallet that holds USDC)\nStore in environment as WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY\nThe SDK uses this to sign orders client-side automatically — no manual signing needed\n\nAsk about settings (or confirm defaults)\n\nMax bucket sum: Combined price threshold (default 90¢)\nMax position: Amount per bucket (default $5.00)\nBucket spread: How many neighbors to buy (default 1 = center ± 1)\nExit threshold: When to sell (default 65¢)\n\nSave settings to config.json or environment variables\n\nSet up cron (disabled by default — user must enable scheduling)\n\nConfiguration\nSetting\tEnv Variable\tConfig Key\tDefault\tDescription\nMax bucket sum\tSIMMER_ELON_MAX_BUCKET_SUM\tmax_bucket_sum\t0.90\tOnly buy if cluster prices sum < this\nMax position\tSIMMER_ELON_MAX_POSITION\tmax_position_usd\t5.00\tMaximum USD per bucket\nBucket spread\tSIMMER_ELON_BUCKET_SPREAD\tbucket_spread\t1\tNeighbors on each side (1 = 3 buckets)\nSmart sizing %\tSIMMER_ELON_SIZING_PCT\tsizing_pct\t0.05\t% of balance per trade\nMax trades/run\tSIMMER_ELON_MAX_TRADES\tmax_trades_per_run\t6\tMaximum trades per scan cycle\nExit threshold\tSIMMER_ELON_EXIT\texit_threshold\t0.65\tSell when bucket price above this\nSlippage max\tSIMMER_ELON_SLIPPAGE_MAX\tslippage_max_pct\t0.05\tSkip trade if slippage exceeds this\nMin position\tSIMMER_ELON_MIN_POSITION\tmin_position_usd\t2.00\tFloor for smart sizing (USD)\nData source\tSIMMER_ELON_DATA_SOURCE\tdata_source\txtracker\tData source (xtracker)\n\nConfig priority: config.json > environment variables > defaults.\n\nQuick Commands\n# Check account balance and positions\npython scripts/status.py\n\n# Detailed position list\npython scripts/status.py --positions\n\n\nAPI Reference:\n\nBase URL: https://api.simmer.markets\nAuth: Authorization: Bearer $SIMMER_API_KEY\nPortfolio: GET /api/sdk/portfolio\nPositions: GET /api/sdk/positions\nRunning the Skill\n# Dry run (default — shows opportunities, no trades)\npython elon_tweets.py\n\n# Execute real trades\npython elon_tweets.py --live\n\n# With smart position sizing (uses portfolio balance)\npython elon_tweets.py --live --smart-sizing\n\n# Show XTracker stats only\npython elon_tweets.py --stats\n\n# Check positions only\npython elon_tweets.py --positions\n\n# View config\npython elon_tweets.py --config\n\n# Update config\npython elon_tweets.py --set max_position_usd=10.00\n\n# Disable safeguards (not recommended)\npython elon_tweets.py --no-safeguards\n\n# Quiet mode — only output on trades/errors (ideal for cron)\npython elon_tweets.py --live --quiet\n\n# Combine: frequent scanning, minimal noise\npython elon_tweets.py --live --smart-sizing --quiet\n\nHow It Works\n\nEach cycle the script:\n\nFetches active XTracker trackings for Elon Musk tweet events\nGets real-time stats: current count, projected pace, days remaining\nSearches Simmer for matching tweet count markets (auto-imports if missing)\nFinds the bucket matching XTracker's pace projection\nEvaluates adjacent buckets (center ± spread)\nEntry: If sum of cluster prices < max_bucket_sum → BUY each bucket\nExit: Checks open positions, sells if any bucket price > exit_threshold\nSafeguards: Checks context for flip-flop warnings, slippage\nTagging: All trades tagged with sdk:elon-tweets for tracking\nAuto-Import\n\nIf tweet count markets aren't on Simmer yet, the skill automatically imports them:\n\nDerives the Polymarket event URL from the XTracker tracking title\nUses the SDK import endpoint (supports multi-outcome events)\nImports all outcome buckets as a group\nCounts as 1 daily import regardless of bucket count\nSmart Sizing\n\nWith --smart-sizing, position size is calculated as:\n\n5% of available USDC balance (configurable via sizing_pct)\nCapped at max position setting ($5.00 default)\nFalls back to fixed size if portfolio unavailable\nSafeguards\n\nBefore trading, the skill checks:\n\nFlip-flop warning: Skips if you've been reversing too much\nSlippage: Skips if estimated slippage > 15%\nMarket status: Skips closed or resolved markets\nExtreme prices: Skips buckets priced > 98% or < 2%\n\nDisable with --no-safeguards (not recommended).\n\nSource Tagging\n\nAll trades are tagged with source: \"sdk:elon-tweets\". This means:\n\nPortfolio shows breakdown by strategy\nOther skills won't sell your tweet positions\nYou can track tweet trading P&L separately\nExample Output\n🐦 Simmer Elon Tweet Trader\n==================================================\n\n⚙️ Configuration:\n Max bucket sum: $0.90\n Max position: $5.00\n Bucket spread: 1 (center ± 1 = 3 buckets)\n Exit threshold: 65%\n Data source: xtracker\n\n📊 XTracker Stats:\n Tracking: Elon Musk # tweets Feb 13 - Feb 20\n Current count: 187 posts\n Pace: 243 projected\n Days remaining: 2.3\n\n🎯 Target cluster: 240-259 (center) + 220-239, 260-279\n 240-259: $0.35\n 220-239: $0.22\n 260-279: $0.18\n Cluster sum: $0.75 (< $0.90 threshold) ✅\n\n Executing trades...\n ✅ Bought 14.3 shares of 240-259 @ $0.35\n ✅ Bought 22.7 shares of 220-239 @ $0.22\n ✅ Bought 27.8 shares of 260-279 @ $0.18\n\n📊 Summary:\n Events scanned: 2\n Clusters evaluated: 2\n Trades executed: 3\n Exits: 0\n\nTroubleshooting\n\n\"No XTracker trackings found\"\n\nXTracker may not have active Elon tweet events\nNew events usually start on Wednesdays/Thursdays\n\n\"Cluster sum $X.XX exceeds threshold\"\n\nBuckets are too expensive — edge is too thin\nWait for prices to drop or widen bucket_spread\n\n\"No matching Simmer markets found\"\n\nMarkets may not be imported yet — skill will auto-import on next run\nCheck that your API key has import capacity (10/day free, 50/day Pro)\n\n\"Safeguard blocked: flip-flop warning\"\n\nYou've been changing direction too much on this market\nWait before trading again\n\n\"External wallet requires a pre-signed order\"\n\nWALLET_PRIVATE_KEY is not set in the environment\nThe SDK signs orders automatically when this env var is present — no manual signing code needed\nFix: export WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY=0x\nDo NOT attempt to sign orders manually or modify the skill code — the SDK handles it\n\n\"Balance shows $0 but I have USDC on Polygon\"\n\nPolymarket uses USDC.e (bridged USDC, contract 0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174) — not native USDC\nIf you bridged USDC to Polygon recently, you likely received native USDC\nSwap native USDC to USDC.e, then retry\n\n\"API key invalid\"\n\nGet new key from simmer.markets/dashboard → SDK tab" }, "trust": { "sourceLabel": "tencent", "provenanceUrl": "https://clawhub.ai/adlai88/polymarket-elon-tweets", "publisherUrl": "https://clawhub.ai/adlai88/polymarket-elon-tweets", "owner": "adlai88", "version": "1.1.1", "license": null, "verificationStatus": "Indexed source record" }, "links": { "detailUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/skills/polymarket-elon-tweets", "downloadUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/downloads/polymarket-elon-tweets", "agentUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/skills/polymarket-elon-tweets/agent", "manifestUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/skills/polymarket-elon-tweets/agent.json", "briefUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/skills/polymarket-elon-tweets/agent.md" } }