{
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "item": {
    "slug": "polymarket-trader",
    "name": "Polymarket Trader",
    "source": "tencent",
    "type": "skill",
    "category": "AI 智能",
    "sourceUrl": "https://clawhub.ai/drakec48/polymarket-trader",
    "canonicalUrl": "https://clawhub.ai/drakec48/polymarket-trader",
    "targetPlatform": "OpenClaw"
  },
  "install": {
    "downloadMode": "redirect",
    "downloadUrl": "/downloads/polymarket-trader",
    "sourceDownloadUrl": "https://wry-manatee-359.convex.site/api/v1/download?slug=polymarket-trader",
    "sourcePlatform": "tencent",
    "targetPlatform": "OpenClaw",
    "installMethod": "Manual import",
    "extraction": "Extract archive",
    "prerequisites": [
      "OpenClaw"
    ],
    "packageFormat": "ZIP package",
    "includedAssets": [
      "references/strategy.md",
      "scripts/binance_klines.py",
      "scripts/binance_regime.py",
      "scripts/explain_fills.py",
      "SKILL.md"
    ],
    "primaryDoc": "SKILL.md",
    "quickSetup": [
      "Download the package from Yavira.",
      "Extract the archive and review SKILL.md first.",
      "Import or place the package into your OpenClaw setup."
    ],
    "agentAssist": {
      "summary": "Hand the extracted package to your coding agent with a concrete install brief instead of figuring it out manually.",
      "steps": [
        "Download the package from Yavira.",
        "Extract it into a folder your agent can access.",
        "Paste one of the prompts below and point your agent at the extracted folder."
      ],
      "prompts": [
        {
          "label": "New install",
          "body": "I downloaded a skill package from Yavira. Read SKILL.md from the extracted folder and install it by following the included instructions. Tell me what you changed and call out any manual steps you could not complete."
        },
        {
          "label": "Upgrade existing",
          "body": "I downloaded an updated skill package from Yavira. Read SKILL.md from the extracted folder, compare it with my current installation, and upgrade it while preserving any custom configuration unless the package docs explicitly say otherwise. Summarize what changed and any follow-up checks I should run."
        }
      ]
    },
    "sourceHealth": {
      "source": "tencent",
      "status": "healthy",
      "reason": "direct_download_ok",
      "recommendedAction": "download",
      "checkedAt": "2026-04-30T16:55:25.780Z",
      "expiresAt": "2026-05-07T16:55:25.780Z",
      "httpStatus": 200,
      "finalUrl": "https://wry-manatee-359.convex.site/api/v1/download?slug=network",
      "contentType": "application/zip",
      "probeMethod": "head",
      "details": {
        "probeUrl": "https://wry-manatee-359.convex.site/api/v1/download?slug=network",
        "contentDisposition": "attachment; filename=\"network-1.0.0.zip\"",
        "redirectLocation": null,
        "bodySnippet": null
      },
      "scope": "source",
      "summary": "Source download looks usable.",
      "detail": "Yavira can redirect you to the upstream package for this source.",
      "primaryActionLabel": "Download for OpenClaw",
      "primaryActionHref": "/downloads/polymarket-trader"
    },
    "validation": {
      "installChecklist": [
        "Use the Yavira download entry.",
        "Review SKILL.md after the package is downloaded.",
        "Confirm the extracted package contains the expected setup assets."
      ],
      "postInstallChecks": [
        "Confirm the extracted package includes the expected docs or setup files.",
        "Validate the skill or prompts are available in your target agent workspace.",
        "Capture any manual follow-up steps the agent could not complete."
      ]
    },
    "downloadPageUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/downloads/polymarket-trader",
    "agentPageUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/skills/polymarket-trader/agent",
    "manifestUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/skills/polymarket-trader/agent.json",
    "briefUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/skills/polymarket-trader/agent.md"
  },
  "agentAssist": {
    "summary": "Hand the extracted package to your coding agent with a concrete install brief instead of figuring it out manually.",
    "steps": [
      "Download the package from Yavira.",
      "Extract it into a folder your agent can access.",
      "Paste one of the prompts below and point your agent at the extracted folder."
    ],
    "prompts": [
      {
        "label": "New install",
        "body": "I downloaded a skill package from Yavira. Read SKILL.md from the extracted folder and install it by following the included instructions. Tell me what you changed and call out any manual steps you could not complete."
      },
      {
        "label": "Upgrade existing",
        "body": "I downloaded an updated skill package from Yavira. Read SKILL.md from the extracted folder, compare it with my current installation, and upgrade it while preserving any custom configuration unless the package docs explicitly say otherwise. Summarize what changed and any follow-up checks I should run."
      }
    ]
  },
  "documentation": {
    "source": "clawhub",
    "primaryDoc": "SKILL.md",
    "sections": [
      {
        "title": "Polymarket Trader",
        "body": "Maintain a profitable BTC 1h Up/Down strategy by anchoring decisions to Binance BTCUSDT (the resolution source) and enforcing anti-churn/risk rules."
      },
      {
        "title": "Workflow (use this order)",
        "body": "Confirm the market type\n\nThis skill is optimized for bitcoin-up-or-down-* 1h markets (Binance 1H open vs close).\n\nCompute the anchor signal (Binance)\n\nFetch 1m closes + the 1h open for the relevant hour.\nCompute volatility (sigma) and time-to-expiry.\nConvert to fair probability for Up/Down.\n\nTrade only when there is measurable edge\n\nEnter only if edge = fair_prob - market_price exceeds a threshold.\nAdd a directional guardrail: do not bet against the sign of the move when |z| is non-trivial.\n\nExit using the right logic for the entry mode\n\nModel entries: exit on edge decay / model flip; hold to preclose when confidence is extreme.\nMean-reversion entries: exit on reversion targets (not model-tp), with strict churn limits.\n\nValidate with logs\n\nEvery suspected “nonsense trade” must be explained via:\n\nreason / entry_mode\nBinance-derived fair probability + z\nwhether the correct exit block fired"
      },
      {
        "title": "Bundled scripts",
        "body": "All scripts are designed to be run from the OpenClaw workspace."
      },
      {
        "title": "1) Fetch Binance klines",
        "body": "{baseDir}/scripts/binance_klines.py\n\nPulls klines and prints JSON."
      },
      {
        "title": "2) Dump/stabilization and regime metrics",
        "body": "{baseDir}/scripts/binance_regime.py\n\nComputes ret5/ret15/slope10 + simple “stabilized” boolean."
      },
      {
        "title": "3) Explain fills (events.jsonl) with Binance context",
        "body": "{baseDir}/scripts/explain_fills.py\n\nReads paperbot events.jsonl and prints a concise table for the last N fills:\n\nside/outcome/px/reason\nestimated fair_up + z\n“against trend?” flag"
      },
      {
        "title": "References",
        "body": "{baseDir}/references/strategy.md — the math model, parameters, and tuning checklist."
      }
    ],
    "body": "Polymarket Trader\n\nMaintain a profitable BTC 1h Up/Down strategy by anchoring decisions to Binance BTCUSDT (the resolution source) and enforcing anti-churn/risk rules.\n\nWorkflow (use this order)\nConfirm the market type\nThis skill is optimized for bitcoin-up-or-down-* 1h markets (Binance 1H open vs close).\nCompute the anchor signal (Binance)\nFetch 1m closes + the 1h open for the relevant hour.\nCompute volatility (sigma) and time-to-expiry.\nConvert to fair probability for Up/Down.\nTrade only when there is measurable edge\nEnter only if edge = fair_prob - market_price exceeds a threshold.\nAdd a directional guardrail: do not bet against the sign of the move when |z| is non-trivial.\nExit using the right logic for the entry mode\nModel entries: exit on edge decay / model flip; hold to preclose when confidence is extreme.\nMean-reversion entries: exit on reversion targets (not model-tp), with strict churn limits.\nValidate with logs\nEvery suspected “nonsense trade” must be explained via:\nreason / entry_mode\nBinance-derived fair probability + z\nwhether the correct exit block fired\nBundled scripts\n\nAll scripts are designed to be run from the OpenClaw workspace.\n\n1) Fetch Binance klines\n{baseDir}/scripts/binance_klines.py\nPulls klines and prints JSON.\n2) Dump/stabilization and regime metrics\n{baseDir}/scripts/binance_regime.py\nComputes ret5/ret15/slope10 + simple “stabilized” boolean.\n3) Explain fills (events.jsonl) with Binance context\n{baseDir}/scripts/explain_fills.py\nReads paperbot events.jsonl and prints a concise table for the last N fills:\nside/outcome/px/reason\nestimated fair_up + z\n“against trend?” flag\nReferences\n{baseDir}/references/strategy.md — the math model, parameters, and tuning checklist."
  },
  "trust": {
    "sourceLabel": "tencent",
    "provenanceUrl": "https://clawhub.ai/drakec48/polymarket-trader",
    "publisherUrl": "https://clawhub.ai/drakec48/polymarket-trader",
    "owner": "drakec48",
    "version": "1.0.0",
    "license": null,
    "verificationStatus": "Indexed source record"
  },
  "links": {
    "detailUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/skills/polymarket-trader",
    "downloadUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/downloads/polymarket-trader",
    "agentUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/skills/polymarket-trader/agent",
    "manifestUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/skills/polymarket-trader/agent.json",
    "briefUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/skills/polymarket-trader/agent.md"
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}