# Send Polymarket Trader to your agent
Hand the extracted package to your coding agent with a concrete install brief instead of figuring it out manually.
## Fast path
- Download the package from Yavira.
- Extract it into a folder your agent can access.
- Paste one of the prompts below and point your agent at the extracted folder.
## Suggested prompts
### New install

```text
I downloaded a skill package from Yavira. Read SKILL.md from the extracted folder and install it by following the included instructions. Tell me what you changed and call out any manual steps you could not complete.
```
### Upgrade existing

```text
I downloaded an updated skill package from Yavira. Read SKILL.md from the extracted folder, compare it with my current installation, and upgrade it while preserving any custom configuration unless the package docs explicitly say otherwise. Summarize what changed and any follow-up checks I should run.
```
## Machine-readable fields
```json
{
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "item": {
    "slug": "polymarket-trader",
    "name": "Polymarket Trader",
    "source": "tencent",
    "type": "skill",
    "category": "AI 智能",
    "sourceUrl": "https://clawhub.ai/drakec48/polymarket-trader",
    "canonicalUrl": "https://clawhub.ai/drakec48/polymarket-trader",
    "targetPlatform": "OpenClaw"
  },
  "install": {
    "downloadUrl": "/downloads/polymarket-trader",
    "sourceDownloadUrl": "https://wry-manatee-359.convex.site/api/v1/download?slug=polymarket-trader",
    "sourcePlatform": "tencent",
    "targetPlatform": "OpenClaw",
    "packageFormat": "ZIP package",
    "primaryDoc": "SKILL.md",
    "includedAssets": [
      "references/strategy.md",
      "scripts/binance_klines.py",
      "scripts/binance_regime.py",
      "scripts/explain_fills.py",
      "SKILL.md"
    ],
    "downloadMode": "redirect",
    "sourceHealth": {
      "source": "tencent",
      "status": "healthy",
      "reason": "direct_download_ok",
      "recommendedAction": "download",
      "checkedAt": "2026-04-30T16:55:25.780Z",
      "expiresAt": "2026-05-07T16:55:25.780Z",
      "httpStatus": 200,
      "finalUrl": "https://wry-manatee-359.convex.site/api/v1/download?slug=network",
      "contentType": "application/zip",
      "probeMethod": "head",
      "details": {
        "probeUrl": "https://wry-manatee-359.convex.site/api/v1/download?slug=network",
        "contentDisposition": "attachment; filename=\"network-1.0.0.zip\"",
        "redirectLocation": null,
        "bodySnippet": null
      },
      "scope": "source",
      "summary": "Source download looks usable.",
      "detail": "Yavira can redirect you to the upstream package for this source.",
      "primaryActionLabel": "Download for OpenClaw",
      "primaryActionHref": "/downloads/polymarket-trader"
    },
    "validation": {
      "installChecklist": [
        "Use the Yavira download entry.",
        "Review SKILL.md after the package is downloaded.",
        "Confirm the extracted package contains the expected setup assets."
      ],
      "postInstallChecks": [
        "Confirm the extracted package includes the expected docs or setup files.",
        "Validate the skill or prompts are available in your target agent workspace.",
        "Capture any manual follow-up steps the agent could not complete."
      ]
    }
  },
  "links": {
    "detailUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/skills/polymarket-trader",
    "downloadUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/downloads/polymarket-trader",
    "agentUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/skills/polymarket-trader/agent",
    "manifestUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/skills/polymarket-trader/agent.json",
    "briefUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/skills/polymarket-trader/agent.md"
  }
}
```
## Documentation

### Polymarket Trader

Maintain a profitable BTC 1h Up/Down strategy by anchoring decisions to Binance BTCUSDT (the resolution source) and enforcing anti-churn/risk rules.

### Workflow (use this order)

Confirm the market type

This skill is optimized for bitcoin-up-or-down-* 1h markets (Binance 1H open vs close).

Compute the anchor signal (Binance)

Fetch 1m closes + the 1h open for the relevant hour.
Compute volatility (sigma) and time-to-expiry.
Convert to fair probability for Up/Down.

Trade only when there is measurable edge

Enter only if edge = fair_prob - market_price exceeds a threshold.
Add a directional guardrail: do not bet against the sign of the move when |z| is non-trivial.

Exit using the right logic for the entry mode

Model entries: exit on edge decay / model flip; hold to preclose when confidence is extreme.
Mean-reversion entries: exit on reversion targets (not model-tp), with strict churn limits.

Validate with logs

Every suspected “nonsense trade” must be explained via:

reason / entry_mode
Binance-derived fair probability + z
whether the correct exit block fired

### Bundled scripts

All scripts are designed to be run from the OpenClaw workspace.

### 1) Fetch Binance klines

{baseDir}/scripts/binance_klines.py

Pulls klines and prints JSON.

### 2) Dump/stabilization and regime metrics

{baseDir}/scripts/binance_regime.py

Computes ret5/ret15/slope10 + simple “stabilized” boolean.

### 3) Explain fills (events.jsonl) with Binance context

{baseDir}/scripts/explain_fills.py

Reads paperbot events.jsonl and prints a concise table for the last N fills:

side/outcome/px/reason
estimated fair_up + z
“against trend?” flag

### References

{baseDir}/references/strategy.md — the math model, parameters, and tuning checklist.
## Trust
- Source: tencent
- Verification: Indexed source record
- Publisher: drakec48
- Version: 1.0.0
## Source health
- Status: healthy
- Source download looks usable.
- Yavira can redirect you to the upstream package for this source.
- Health scope: source
- Reason: direct_download_ok
- Checked at: 2026-04-30T16:55:25.780Z
- Expires at: 2026-05-07T16:55:25.780Z
- Recommended action: Download for OpenClaw
## Links
- [Detail page](https://openagent3.xyz/skills/polymarket-trader)
- [Send to Agent page](https://openagent3.xyz/skills/polymarket-trader/agent)
- [JSON manifest](https://openagent3.xyz/skills/polymarket-trader/agent.json)
- [Markdown brief](https://openagent3.xyz/skills/polymarket-trader/agent.md)
- [Download page](https://openagent3.xyz/downloads/polymarket-trader)