{
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  "item": {
    "slug": "prediction-market-aggregator",
    "name": "Prediction Market Aggregator",
    "source": "tencent",
    "type": "skill",
    "category": "数据分析",
    "sourceUrl": "https://clawhub.ai/JamieRossouw/prediction-market-aggregator",
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      "OpenClaw"
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      "Download the package from Yavira.",
      "Extract the archive and review SKILL.md first.",
      "Import or place the package into your OpenClaw setup."
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      "steps": [
        "Download the package from Yavira.",
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        "Paste one of the prompts below and point your agent at the extracted folder."
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          "body": "I downloaded a skill package from Yavira. Read SKILL.md from the extracted folder and install it by following the included instructions. Tell me what you changed and call out any manual steps you could not complete."
        },
        {
          "label": "Upgrade existing",
          "body": "I downloaded an updated skill package from Yavira. Read SKILL.md from the extracted folder, compare it with my current installation, and upgrade it while preserving any custom configuration unless the package docs explicitly say otherwise. Summarize what changed and any follow-up checks I should run."
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      "detail": "Yavira can redirect you to the upstream package for this source.",
      "primaryActionLabel": "Download for OpenClaw",
      "primaryActionHref": "/downloads/prediction-market-aggregator"
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        "Review SKILL.md after the package is downloaded.",
        "Confirm the extracted package contains the expected setup assets."
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        "Confirm the extracted package includes the expected docs or setup files.",
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    "downloadPageUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/downloads/prediction-market-aggregator",
    "agentPageUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/skills/prediction-market-aggregator/agent",
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  "agentAssist": {
    "summary": "Hand the extracted package to your coding agent with a concrete install brief instead of figuring it out manually.",
    "steps": [
      "Download the package from Yavira.",
      "Extract it into a folder your agent can access.",
      "Paste one of the prompts below and point your agent at the extracted folder."
    ],
    "prompts": [
      {
        "label": "New install",
        "body": "I downloaded a skill package from Yavira. Read SKILL.md from the extracted folder and install it by following the included instructions. Tell me what you changed and call out any manual steps you could not complete."
      },
      {
        "label": "Upgrade existing",
        "body": "I downloaded an updated skill package from Yavira. Read SKILL.md from the extracted folder, compare it with my current installation, and upgrade it while preserving any custom configuration unless the package docs explicitly say otherwise. Summarize what changed and any follow-up checks I should run."
      }
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  "documentation": {
    "source": "clawhub",
    "primaryDoc": "SKILL.md",
    "sections": [
      {
        "title": "Prediction Market Aggregator",
        "body": "Cross-market prediction data, edge detection, and arbitrage scanner. Open-source alternative to DomeAPI."
      },
      {
        "title": "Markets Covered",
        "body": "MarketAssetsAPIAuthPolymarketBTC, ETH, SOL, XRP hourly + major eventsCLOB RESTAPI key + EIP-712Manifold MarketsThousands of community marketsRESTAPI key (free)MetaculusLong-form forecasts, aggregated consensusRESTNone (public)KalshiUS-regulated binary contractsRESTAPI key"
      },
      {
        "title": "1. Cross-Market Arbitrage Scanner",
        "body": "Find the same question priced differently across markets:\n\nBTC >$70k by March? \n  Polymarket: 62% \n  Manifold: 71%  ← 9% gap → sell Manifold, buy Polymarket\n  Metaculus: 58%"
      },
      {
        "title": "2. Consensus Drift Detection",
        "body": "Track how market consensus shifts over time:\n\nAlert when market moves >10% within 30 minutes\nDetect smart money vs retail flow divergence\nFlag markets where Metaculus (superforecasters) disagrees >15% with Polymarket"
      },
      {
        "title": "3. Polymarket CLOB Integration",
        "body": "Full py-clob-client compatible:\n\nScan hourly BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP markets\nCalculate edge vs TA-implied probability (Argus strategy)\nCounter-consensus detection (L023): market >70% one-sided + TA disagrees = bet"
      },
      {
        "title": "4. Unified API Response Format",
        "body": "{\n  \"question\": \"BTC up by 1pm ET?\",\n  \"markets\": {\n    \"polymarket\": { \"yes\": 0.62, \"volume\": 455000, \"url\": \"...\" },\n    \"manifold\": { \"yes\": 0.71, \"traders\": 142, \"url\": \"...\" }\n  },\n  \"arbitrage\": { \"detected\": true, \"gap\": 0.09, \"direction\": \"buy_poly_sell_manifold\" },\n  \"consensus\": { \"weighted_avg\": 0.65, \"superforecaster_avg\": 0.58 }\n}"
      },
      {
        "title": "How to Use",
        "body": "Ask: \"Is there arbitrage between Polymarket and Manifold on BTC price?\"\nAsk: \"What markets have the widest consensus gap right now?\"\nAsk: \"Find me the highest-edge Polymarket bet using cross-market consensus\""
      },
      {
        "title": "DomeAPI Migration Guide",
        "body": "If you used DomeAPI for cross-market data:\n\n/v1/markets → Use Polymarket CLOB /markets + Manifold /v0/markets + Metaculus /questions\n/v1/arbitrage → Use this skill's cross-market scanner\n/v1/consensus → Use Metaculus community predictions as consensus baseline"
      },
      {
        "title": "Argus Integration",
        "body": "This skill plugs directly into the Argus edge detection strategy:\n\nGet TA score from argus-edge skill\nCompare vs cross-market consensus from this skill\nIf TA + consensus both diverge from Polymarket price → max conviction bet"
      }
    ],
    "body": "Prediction Market Aggregator\n\nCross-market prediction data, edge detection, and arbitrage scanner. Open-source alternative to DomeAPI.\n\nMarkets Covered\nMarket\tAssets\tAPI\tAuth\nPolymarket\tBTC, ETH, SOL, XRP hourly + major events\tCLOB REST\tAPI key + EIP-712\nManifold Markets\tThousands of community markets\tREST\tAPI key (free)\nMetaculus\tLong-form forecasts, aggregated consensus\tREST\tNone (public)\nKalshi\tUS-regulated binary contracts\tREST\tAPI key\nCore Features\n1. Cross-Market Arbitrage Scanner\n\nFind the same question priced differently across markets:\n\nBTC >$70k by March? \n  Polymarket: 62% \n  Manifold: 71%  ← 9% gap → sell Manifold, buy Polymarket\n  Metaculus: 58%\n\n2. Consensus Drift Detection\n\nTrack how market consensus shifts over time:\n\nAlert when market moves >10% within 30 minutes\nDetect smart money vs retail flow divergence\nFlag markets where Metaculus (superforecasters) disagrees >15% with Polymarket\n3. Polymarket CLOB Integration\n\nFull py-clob-client compatible:\n\nScan hourly BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP markets\nCalculate edge vs TA-implied probability (Argus strategy)\nCounter-consensus detection (L023): market >70% one-sided + TA disagrees = bet\n4. Unified API Response Format\n{\n  \"question\": \"BTC up by 1pm ET?\",\n  \"markets\": {\n    \"polymarket\": { \"yes\": 0.62, \"volume\": 455000, \"url\": \"...\" },\n    \"manifold\": { \"yes\": 0.71, \"traders\": 142, \"url\": \"...\" }\n  },\n  \"arbitrage\": { \"detected\": true, \"gap\": 0.09, \"direction\": \"buy_poly_sell_manifold\" },\n  \"consensus\": { \"weighted_avg\": 0.65, \"superforecaster_avg\": 0.58 }\n}\n\nHow to Use\n\nAsk: \"Is there arbitrage between Polymarket and Manifold on BTC price?\" Ask: \"What markets have the widest consensus gap right now?\" Ask: \"Find me the highest-edge Polymarket bet using cross-market consensus\"\n\nDomeAPI Migration Guide\n\nIf you used DomeAPI for cross-market data:\n\n/v1/markets → Use Polymarket CLOB /markets + Manifold /v0/markets + Metaculus /questions\n/v1/arbitrage → Use this skill's cross-market scanner\n/v1/consensus → Use Metaculus community predictions as consensus baseline\nArgus Integration\n\nThis skill plugs directly into the Argus edge detection strategy:\n\nGet TA score from argus-edge skill\nCompare vs cross-market consensus from this skill\nIf TA + consensus both diverge from Polymarket price → max conviction bet"
  },
  "trust": {
    "sourceLabel": "tencent",
    "provenanceUrl": "https://clawhub.ai/JamieRossouw/prediction-market-aggregator",
    "publisherUrl": "https://clawhub.ai/JamieRossouw/prediction-market-aggregator",
    "owner": "JamieRossouw",
    "version": "1.0.0",
    "license": null,
    "verificationStatus": "Indexed source record"
  },
  "links": {
    "detailUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/skills/prediction-market-aggregator",
    "downloadUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/downloads/prediction-market-aggregator",
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}