{
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  "item": {
    "slug": "second-order-effects",
    "name": "Second Order Effects",
    "source": "tencent",
    "type": "skill",
    "category": "数据分析",
    "sourceUrl": "https://clawhub.ai/ivangdavila/second-order-effects",
    "canonicalUrl": "https://clawhub.ai/ivangdavila/second-order-effects",
    "targetPlatform": "OpenClaw"
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        "Paste one of the prompts below and point your agent at the extracted folder."
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          "body": "I downloaded a skill package from Yavira. Read SKILL.md from the extracted folder and install it by following the included instructions. Tell me what you changed and call out any manual steps you could not complete."
        },
        {
          "label": "Upgrade existing",
          "body": "I downloaded an updated skill package from Yavira. Read SKILL.md from the extracted folder, compare it with my current installation, and upgrade it while preserving any custom configuration unless the package docs explicitly say otherwise. Summarize what changed and any follow-up checks I should run."
        }
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      },
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      "detail": "Yavira can redirect you to the upstream package for this source.",
      "primaryActionLabel": "Download for OpenClaw",
      "primaryActionHref": "/downloads/second-order-effects"
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        "Review SKILL.md after the package is downloaded.",
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        "Confirm the extracted package includes the expected docs or setup files.",
        "Validate the skill or prompts are available in your target agent workspace.",
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    "summary": "Hand the extracted package to your coding agent with a concrete install brief instead of figuring it out manually.",
    "steps": [
      "Download the package from Yavira.",
      "Extract it into a folder your agent can access.",
      "Paste one of the prompts below and point your agent at the extracted folder."
    ],
    "prompts": [
      {
        "label": "New install",
        "body": "I downloaded a skill package from Yavira. Read SKILL.md from the extracted folder and install it by following the included instructions. Tell me what you changed and call out any manual steps you could not complete."
      },
      {
        "label": "Upgrade existing",
        "body": "I downloaded an updated skill package from Yavira. Read SKILL.md from the extracted folder, compare it with my current installation, and upgrade it while preserving any custom configuration unless the package docs explicitly say otherwise. Summarize what changed and any follow-up checks I should run."
      }
    ]
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  "documentation": {
    "source": "clawhub",
    "primaryDoc": "SKILL.md",
    "sections": [
      {
        "title": "Setup",
        "body": "If ~/second-order-effects/ doesn't exist, or user's memory file shows setup incomplete, read setup.md first."
      },
      {
        "title": "When to Use",
        "body": "User faces a decision with non-obvious downstream effects. Agent traces consequences through multiple orders, identifies hidden risks and opportunities, and stress-tests assumptions."
      },
      {
        "title": "Architecture",
        "body": "Memory lives in ~/second-order-effects/. See memory-template.md for structure.\n\n~/second-order-effects/\n├── memory.md          # Preferences + past analyses\n├── decisions/         # Archived decision analyses\n│   └── YYYY-MM-DD_topic.md\n└── patterns.md        # Learned consequence patterns"
      },
      {
        "title": "Quick Reference",
        "body": "TopicFileSetup processsetup.mdMemory templatememory-template.mdAnalysis frameworkframework.mdCommon patternspatterns.md"
      },
      {
        "title": "1. Always Go Three Levels Deep",
        "body": "First-order: What happens immediately?\nSecond-order: What does that cause?\nThird-order: What does THAT cause?\n\nMost people stop at first-order. Competitive advantage lives in second and third."
      },
      {
        "title": "2. Consider All Stakeholders",
        "body": "Map who is affected at each order:\n\nDirect participants\nIndirect observers\nMarket/ecosystem\nFuture self\n\nEach stakeholder creates new consequence chains."
      },
      {
        "title": "3. Invert the Question",
        "body": "After mapping positive outcomes, ask: \"What could go wrong at each level?\"\n\nOrderOptimisticPessimistic1stDirect benefitObvious risk2ndCompounding gainHidden cost3rdStrategic advantageSystemic risk"
      },
      {
        "title": "4. Time-Weight Consequences",
        "body": "Near-term consequences feel larger than they are. Apply discount:\n\n1st order (now): weight 0.5\n2nd order (weeks/months): weight 1.0\n3rd order (years): weight 1.5\n\nDecisions that sacrifice 2nd/3rd order for 1st are usually wrong."
      },
      {
        "title": "5. Document Predictions",
        "body": "Every analysis should include falsifiable predictions with timestamps. Review quarterly. Update patterns.md when patterns emerge."
      },
      {
        "title": "Consequence Chain Format",
        "body": "Use this structure for every analysis:\n\n## Decision: [One sentence]\n\n### First Order (Immediate)\n- Effect 1 → leads to...\n- Effect 2 → leads to...\n\n### Second Order (Weeks-Months)\n- [Effect 1] causes → ...\n- [Effect 2] causes → ...\n\n### Third Order (Months-Years)\n- [Second-order effect] causes → ...\n\n### Stakeholder Map\n| Who | 1st Order | 2nd Order | 3rd Order |\n|-----|-----------|-----------|-----------|\n\n### Inversion (What Could Go Wrong)\n- Risk at 2nd order: ...\n- Risk at 3rd order: ...\n\n### Decision: [Proceed/Pause/Reject] because [reason tied to 2nd/3rd order]"
      },
      {
        "title": "Common Traps",
        "body": "Stopping at first order → miss compounding effects\nIgnoring negative second-order effects → blindsided by hidden costs\nOver-weighting immediate pain → sacrifice long-term position\nAnalysis paralysis → set time limit (15-30 min), then decide\nConfident predictions → use probability ranges, not certainties"
      },
      {
        "title": "Scope",
        "body": "This skill ONLY:\n\nAnalyzes decisions using consequence chains\nStores analyses in ~/second-order-effects/\nLearns patterns from past decisions\n\nThis skill NEVER:\n\nMakes decisions for the user\nAccesses external data without request\nModifies its own SKILL.md"
      },
      {
        "title": "Security & Privacy",
        "body": "Data that stays local:\n\nDecision analyses in ~/second-order-effects/\nLearned patterns and preferences\n\nThis skill does NOT:\n\nSend data externally\nAccess files outside its directory\nMake network requests"
      },
      {
        "title": "Related Skills",
        "body": "Install with clawhub install <slug> if user confirms:\n\nfirst-principles-thinking - break problems to fundamentals\nsix-thinking-hats - parallel thinking modes\nstrategy - strategic planning frameworks"
      },
      {
        "title": "Feedback",
        "body": "If useful: clawhub star second-order-effects\nStay updated: clawhub sync"
      }
    ],
    "body": "Setup\n\nIf ~/second-order-effects/ doesn't exist, or user's memory file shows setup incomplete, read setup.md first.\n\nWhen to Use\n\nUser faces a decision with non-obvious downstream effects. Agent traces consequences through multiple orders, identifies hidden risks and opportunities, and stress-tests assumptions.\n\nArchitecture\n\nMemory lives in ~/second-order-effects/. See memory-template.md for structure.\n\n~/second-order-effects/\n├── memory.md          # Preferences + past analyses\n├── decisions/         # Archived decision analyses\n│   └── YYYY-MM-DD_topic.md\n└── patterns.md        # Learned consequence patterns\n\nQuick Reference\nTopic\tFile\nSetup process\tsetup.md\nMemory template\tmemory-template.md\nAnalysis framework\tframework.md\nCommon patterns\tpatterns.md\nCore Rules\n1. Always Go Three Levels Deep\n\nFirst-order: What happens immediately? Second-order: What does that cause? Third-order: What does THAT cause?\n\nMost people stop at first-order. Competitive advantage lives in second and third.\n\n2. Consider All Stakeholders\n\nMap who is affected at each order:\n\nDirect participants\nIndirect observers\nMarket/ecosystem\nFuture self\n\nEach stakeholder creates new consequence chains.\n\n3. Invert the Question\n\nAfter mapping positive outcomes, ask: \"What could go wrong at each level?\"\n\nOrder\tOptimistic\tPessimistic\n1st\tDirect benefit\tObvious risk\n2nd\tCompounding gain\tHidden cost\n3rd\tStrategic advantage\tSystemic risk\n4. Time-Weight Consequences\n\nNear-term consequences feel larger than they are. Apply discount:\n\n1st order (now): weight 0.5\n2nd order (weeks/months): weight 1.0\n3rd order (years): weight 1.5\n\nDecisions that sacrifice 2nd/3rd order for 1st are usually wrong.\n\n5. Document Predictions\n\nEvery analysis should include falsifiable predictions with timestamps. Review quarterly. Update patterns.md when patterns emerge.\n\nConsequence Chain Format\n\nUse this structure for every analysis:\n\n## Decision: [One sentence]\n\n### First Order (Immediate)\n- Effect 1 → leads to...\n- Effect 2 → leads to...\n\n### Second Order (Weeks-Months)\n- [Effect 1] causes → ...\n- [Effect 2] causes → ...\n\n### Third Order (Months-Years)\n- [Second-order effect] causes → ...\n\n### Stakeholder Map\n| Who | 1st Order | 2nd Order | 3rd Order |\n|-----|-----------|-----------|-----------|\n\n### Inversion (What Could Go Wrong)\n- Risk at 2nd order: ...\n- Risk at 3rd order: ...\n\n### Decision: [Proceed/Pause/Reject] because [reason tied to 2nd/3rd order]\n\nCommon Traps\nStopping at first order → miss compounding effects\nIgnoring negative second-order effects → blindsided by hidden costs\nOver-weighting immediate pain → sacrifice long-term position\nAnalysis paralysis → set time limit (15-30 min), then decide\nConfident predictions → use probability ranges, not certainties\nScope\n\nThis skill ONLY:\n\nAnalyzes decisions using consequence chains\nStores analyses in ~/second-order-effects/\nLearns patterns from past decisions\n\nThis skill NEVER:\n\nMakes decisions for the user\nAccesses external data without request\nModifies its own SKILL.md\nSecurity & Privacy\n\nData that stays local:\n\nDecision analyses in ~/second-order-effects/\nLearned patterns and preferences\n\nThis skill does NOT:\n\nSend data externally\nAccess files outside its directory\nMake network requests\nRelated Skills\n\nInstall with clawhub install <slug> if user confirms:\n\nfirst-principles-thinking - break problems to fundamentals\nsix-thinking-hats - parallel thinking modes\nstrategy - strategic planning frameworks\nFeedback\nIf useful: clawhub star second-order-effects\nStay updated: clawhub sync"
  },
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    "sourceLabel": "tencent",
    "provenanceUrl": "https://clawhub.ai/ivangdavila/second-order-effects",
    "publisherUrl": "https://clawhub.ai/ivangdavila/second-order-effects",
    "owner": "ivangdavila",
    "version": "1.0.0",
    "license": null,
    "verificationStatus": "Indexed source record"
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