# Send Second Order Effects to your agent Hand the extracted package to your coding agent with a concrete install brief instead of figuring it out manually. ## Fast path - Download the package from Yavira. - Extract it into a folder your agent can access. - Paste one of the prompts below and point your agent at the extracted folder. ## Suggested prompts ### New install ```text I downloaded a skill package from Yavira. Read SKILL.md from the extracted folder and install it by following the included instructions. Tell me what you changed and call out any manual steps you could not complete. ``` ### Upgrade existing ```text I downloaded an updated skill package from Yavira. Read SKILL.md from the extracted folder, compare it with my current installation, and upgrade it while preserving any custom configuration unless the package docs explicitly say otherwise. Summarize what changed and any follow-up checks I should run. ``` ## Machine-readable fields ```json { "schemaVersion": "1.0", "item": { "slug": "second-order-effects", "name": "Second Order Effects", "source": "tencent", "type": "skill", "category": "数据分析", "sourceUrl": "https://clawhub.ai/ivangdavila/second-order-effects", "canonicalUrl": "https://clawhub.ai/ivangdavila/second-order-effects", "targetPlatform": "OpenClaw" }, "install": { "downloadUrl": "/downloads/second-order-effects", "sourceDownloadUrl": "https://wry-manatee-359.convex.site/api/v1/download?slug=second-order-effects", "sourcePlatform": "tencent", "targetPlatform": "OpenClaw", "packageFormat": "ZIP package", "primaryDoc": "SKILL.md", "includedAssets": [ "SKILL.md", "framework.md", "memory-template.md", "patterns.md", "setup.md" ], "downloadMode": "redirect", "sourceHealth": { "source": "tencent", "slug": "second-order-effects", "status": "healthy", "reason": "direct_download_ok", "recommendedAction": "download", "checkedAt": "2026-04-30T03:21:59.351Z", "expiresAt": "2026-05-07T03:21:59.351Z", "httpStatus": 200, "finalUrl": "https://wry-manatee-359.convex.site/api/v1/download?slug=second-order-effects", "contentType": "application/zip", "probeMethod": "head", "details": { "probeUrl": "https://wry-manatee-359.convex.site/api/v1/download?slug=second-order-effects", "contentDisposition": "attachment; filename=\"second-order-effects-1.0.0.zip\"", "redirectLocation": null, "bodySnippet": null, "slug": "second-order-effects" }, "scope": "item", "summary": "Item download looks usable.", "detail": "Yavira can redirect you to the upstream package for this item.", "primaryActionLabel": "Download for OpenClaw", "primaryActionHref": "/downloads/second-order-effects" }, "validation": { "installChecklist": [ "Use the Yavira download entry.", "Review SKILL.md after the package is downloaded.", "Confirm the extracted package contains the expected setup assets." ], "postInstallChecks": [ "Confirm the extracted package includes the expected docs or setup files.", "Validate the skill or prompts are available in your target agent workspace.", "Capture any manual follow-up steps the agent could not complete." ] } }, "links": { "detailUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/skills/second-order-effects", "downloadUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/downloads/second-order-effects", "agentUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/skills/second-order-effects/agent", "manifestUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/skills/second-order-effects/agent.json", "briefUrl": "https://openagent3.xyz/skills/second-order-effects/agent.md" } } ``` ## Documentation ### Setup If ~/second-order-effects/ doesn't exist, or user's memory file shows setup incomplete, read setup.md first. ### When to Use User faces a decision with non-obvious downstream effects. Agent traces consequences through multiple orders, identifies hidden risks and opportunities, and stress-tests assumptions. ### Architecture Memory lives in ~/second-order-effects/. See memory-template.md for structure. ~/second-order-effects/ ├── memory.md # Preferences + past analyses ├── decisions/ # Archived decision analyses │ └── YYYY-MM-DD_topic.md └── patterns.md # Learned consequence patterns ### Quick Reference TopicFileSetup processsetup.mdMemory templatememory-template.mdAnalysis frameworkframework.mdCommon patternspatterns.md ### 1. Always Go Three Levels Deep First-order: What happens immediately? Second-order: What does that cause? Third-order: What does THAT cause? Most people stop at first-order. Competitive advantage lives in second and third. ### 2. Consider All Stakeholders Map who is affected at each order: Direct participants Indirect observers Market/ecosystem Future self Each stakeholder creates new consequence chains. ### 3. Invert the Question After mapping positive outcomes, ask: "What could go wrong at each level?" OrderOptimisticPessimistic1stDirect benefitObvious risk2ndCompounding gainHidden cost3rdStrategic advantageSystemic risk ### 4. Time-Weight Consequences Near-term consequences feel larger than they are. Apply discount: 1st order (now): weight 0.5 2nd order (weeks/months): weight 1.0 3rd order (years): weight 1.5 Decisions that sacrifice 2nd/3rd order for 1st are usually wrong. ### 5. Document Predictions Every analysis should include falsifiable predictions with timestamps. Review quarterly. Update patterns.md when patterns emerge. ### Consequence Chain Format Use this structure for every analysis: ## Decision: [One sentence] ### First Order (Immediate) - Effect 1 → leads to... - Effect 2 → leads to... ### Second Order (Weeks-Months) - [Effect 1] causes → ... - [Effect 2] causes → ... ### Third Order (Months-Years) - [Second-order effect] causes → ... ### Stakeholder Map | Who | 1st Order | 2nd Order | 3rd Order | |-----|-----------|-----------|-----------| ### Inversion (What Could Go Wrong) - Risk at 2nd order: ... - Risk at 3rd order: ... ### Decision: [Proceed/Pause/Reject] because [reason tied to 2nd/3rd order] ### Common Traps Stopping at first order → miss compounding effects Ignoring negative second-order effects → blindsided by hidden costs Over-weighting immediate pain → sacrifice long-term position Analysis paralysis → set time limit (15-30 min), then decide Confident predictions → use probability ranges, not certainties ### Scope This skill ONLY: Analyzes decisions using consequence chains Stores analyses in ~/second-order-effects/ Learns patterns from past decisions This skill NEVER: Makes decisions for the user Accesses external data without request Modifies its own SKILL.md ### Security & Privacy Data that stays local: Decision analyses in ~/second-order-effects/ Learned patterns and preferences This skill does NOT: Send data externally Access files outside its directory Make network requests ### Related Skills Install with clawhub install if user confirms: first-principles-thinking - break problems to fundamentals six-thinking-hats - parallel thinking modes strategy - strategic planning frameworks ### Feedback If useful: clawhub star second-order-effects Stay updated: clawhub sync ## Trust - Source: tencent - Verification: Indexed source record - Publisher: ivangdavila - Version: 1.0.0 ## Source health - Status: healthy - Item download looks usable. - Yavira can redirect you to the upstream package for this item. - Health scope: item - Reason: direct_download_ok - Checked at: 2026-04-30T03:21:59.351Z - Expires at: 2026-05-07T03:21:59.351Z - Recommended action: Download for OpenClaw ## Links - [Detail page](https://openagent3.xyz/skills/second-order-effects) - [Send to Agent page](https://openagent3.xyz/skills/second-order-effects/agent) - [JSON manifest](https://openagent3.xyz/skills/second-order-effects/agent.json) - [Markdown brief](https://openagent3.xyz/skills/second-order-effects/agent.md) - [Download page](https://openagent3.xyz/downloads/second-order-effects)