Requirements
- Target platform
- OpenClaw
- Install method
- Manual import
- Extraction
- Extract archive
- Prerequisites
- OpenClaw
- Primary doc
- SKILL.md
Tencent SkillHub · Data Analysis
Polymarket Ai Divergence
Find markets where Simmer's AI consensus diverges from the real market price, then trade on the mispriced side using Kelly sizing. Scans for divergence, chec...
skill openclawclawhub Free
Find markets where Simmer's AI consensus diverges from the real market price, then trade on the mispriced side using Kelly sizing. Scans for divergence, chec...
⬇ 0 downloads ★ 0 stars Unverified but indexed
Install for OpenClaw
Quick setup
- Download the package from Yavira.
- Extract the archive and review SKILL.md first.
- Import or place the package into your OpenClaw setup.
Package facts
- Download mode
- Yavira redirect
- Package format
- ZIP package
- Source platform
- Tencent SkillHub
- What's included
- SKILL.md, ai_divergence.py, clawhub.json, scripts/status.py
Validation
- Use the Yavira download entry.
- Review SKILL.md after the package is downloaded.
- Confirm the extracted package contains the expected setup assets.
Install with your agent
Agent handoff
Hand the extracted package to your coding agent with a concrete install brief instead of figuring it out manually.
- Download the package from Yavira.
- Extract it into a folder your agent can access.
- Paste one of the prompts below and point your agent at the extracted folder.
New install
I downloaded a skill package from Yavira. Read SKILL.md from the extracted folder and install it by following the included instructions. Tell me what you changed and call out any manual steps you could not complete.
Upgrade existing
I downloaded an updated skill package from Yavira. Read SKILL.md from the extracted folder, compare it with my current installation, and upgrade it while preserving any custom configuration unless the package docs explicitly say otherwise. Summarize what changed and any follow-up checks I should run.
Trust & source
Release facts
- Source
- Tencent SkillHub
- Verification
- Indexed source record
- Version
- 2.2.1
Provenance
- Publisher
- adlai88
- Source page
- View original listing
- Canonical URL
- Open canonical page
Documentation
Polymarket AI Divergence Trader
Find markets where Simmer's AI consensus diverges from the real market price, then trade the edge. This is a template. The default logic trades when AI divergence exceeds 2% on zero-fee markets, using Kelly sizing capped at 25%. Remix it with different edge thresholds, sizing strategies, or additional filters (e.g., only trade markets resolving within 7 days). The skill handles plumbing (divergence scanning, fee checks, safeguards, execution). Your agent provides the alpha.
What It Does
Scans all active markets for AI vs market price divergence Filters to markets with edge above threshold (default 2%) and zero fees Checks safeguards (flip-flop detection, existing positions) Sizes using Kelly criterion, capped conservatively Executes trades on the mispriced side (YES when AI is bullish, NO when bearish)
Quick Commands
# Scan only (dry run, no trades) python ai_divergence.py # Scan + execute trades python ai_divergence.py --live # Only show bullish divergences python ai_divergence.py --bullish # Only >15% divergence python ai_divergence.py --min 15 # JSON output python ai_divergence.py --json # Cron mode (quiet, trades only) python ai_divergence.py --live --quiet # Show config python ai_divergence.py --config # Update config python ai_divergence.py --set max_bet_usd=10
Configuration
KeyEnv VarDefaultDescriptionmin_divergenceSIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MIN5.0Min divergence % for scanner displaymin_edgeSIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MIN_EDGE0.02Min divergence to trade (2%)max_bet_usdSIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MAX_BET5.0Max bet per trademax_trades_per_runSIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MAX_TRADES3Max trades per cyclekelly_capSIMMER_DIVERGENCE_KELLY_CAP0.25Kelly fraction capdaily_budgetSIMMER_DIVERGENCE_DAILY_BUDGET25.0Daily spend limitdefault_directionSIMMER_DIVERGENCE_DIRECTION(both)Filter: "bullish" or "bearish" Update via CLI: python ai_divergence.py --set max_bet_usd=10
Divergence Signal
Each imported market has two prices: AI consensus (current_probability) — Simmer's AI consensus price, derived from multi-model ensemble forecasting External price (external_price_yes) — Real market price on Polymarket/Kalshi divergence = AI consensus - external price When divergence > 0: AI thinks the market is underpriced → buy YES When divergence < 0: AI thinks the market is overpriced → buy NO
Kelly Sizing
Position size uses the Kelly criterion: kelly_fraction = edge / (1 - price) position_size = kelly_fraction * max_bet_usd Capped at kelly_cap (default 25%) to limit risk.
Fee Filtering
75% of Polymarket markets have 0% fees. The remaining 25% charge 10% (short-duration crypto/sports). This skill only trades zero-fee markets to avoid fee drag eroding the edge.
Safeguards
Fee check: Skips markets with any taker fee Flip-flop detection: Uses SDK's context API to detect contradictory trades Position check: Skips markets where you already hold a position Daily budget: Stops trading when daily spend limit is reached Kelly sizing: Conservative sizing prevents over-betting
API Endpoints Used
GET /api/sdk/markets/opportunities — Divergence-ranked market list GET /api/sdk/context/{market_id} — Fee rate and safeguards per market POST /api/sdk/trade — Trade execution (via SDK client) GET /api/sdk/positions — Current portfolio positions
Troubleshooting
"No markets above min edge threshold" → All divergences are below the min_edge setting. Lower it with --set min_edge=0.01 or wait for larger divergences. "Daily budget exhausted" → The skill has hit its daily spend limit. Adjust with --set daily_budget=50. All markets skipped for fees → Only zero-fee markets are traded. If all available divergence opportunities have fees, no trades execute. This is by design. "context fetch failed" → The SDK context endpoint is rate-limited (18 req/min). If running frequently, reduce max_trades_per_run.
Category context
Data access, storage, extraction, analysis, reporting, and insight generation.
Source: Tencent SkillHub
Largest current source with strong distribution and engagement signals.
Package contents
Included in package
2 Scripts1 Docs1 Config
- SKILL.md
- ai_divergence.py
- scripts/status.py
- clawhub.json