Requirements
- Target platform
- OpenClaw
- Install method
- Manual import
- Extraction
- Extract archive
- Prerequisites
- OpenClaw
- Primary doc
- SKILL.md
Tencent SkillHub · Data Analysis
Polymarket Arbitrage
Monitor and execute arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket prediction markets. Detects math arbitrage (multi-outcome probability mismatches), cross-market arbitrage (same event different prices), and orderbook inefficiencies. Use when user wants to find or trade Polymarket arbitrage, monitor prediction markets for opportunities, or implement automated trading strategies. Includes risk management, P&L tracking, and alerting.
skill openclawclawhub Free
Monitor and execute arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket prediction markets. Detects math arbitrage (multi-outcome probability mismatches), cross-market arbitrage (same event different prices), and orderbook inefficiencies. Use when user wants to find or trade Polymarket arbitrage, monitor prediction markets for opportunities, or implement automated trading strategies. Includes risk management, P&L tracking, and alerting.
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Install for OpenClaw
Quick setup
- Download the package from Yavira.
- Extract the archive and review SKILL.md first.
- Import or place the package into your OpenClaw setup.
Package facts
- Download mode
- Yavira redirect
- Package format
- ZIP package
- Source platform
- Tencent SkillHub
- What's included
- SKILL.md, arbs.json, polymarket_data/arbs.json, polymarket_data/markets.json, references/arbitrage_types.md, references/getting_started.md
Validation
- Use the Yavira download entry.
- Review SKILL.md after the package is downloaded.
- Confirm the extracted package contains the expected setup assets.
Install with your agent
Agent handoff
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- Download the package from Yavira.
- Extract it into a folder your agent can access.
- Paste one of the prompts below and point your agent at the extracted folder.
New install
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Upgrade existing
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Trust & source
Release facts
- Source
- Tencent SkillHub
- Verification
- Indexed source record
- Version
- 0.1.0
Provenance
- Publisher
- JohnY0920
- Source page
- View original listing
- Canonical URL
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Documentation
Polymarket Arbitrage
Find and execute arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket prediction markets.
1. Paper Trading (Recommended First Step)
Run a single scan to see current opportunities: cd skills/polymarket-arbitrage pip install requests beautifulsoup4 python scripts/monitor.py --once --min-edge 3.0 View results in polymarket_data/arbs.json
2. Continuous Monitoring
Monitor every 5 minutes and alert on new opportunities: python scripts/monitor.py --interval 300 --min-edge 3.0 Stop with Ctrl+C
3. Understanding Results
Each detected arbitrage includes: net_profit_pct: Edge after 2% fees risk_score: 0-100, lower is better volume: Market liquidity action: What to do (buy/sell all outcomes) Good opportunities: Net profit: 3-5%+ Risk score: <50 Volume: $1M+ Type: math_arb_buy (safer)
Math Arbitrage (Primary Focus)
Type A: Buy All Outcomes (prob sum < 100%) Safest type Guaranteed profit if executable Example: 48% + 45% = 93% → 7% edge, ~5% net after fees Type B: Sell All Outcomes (prob sum > 100%) Riskier (requires liquidity) Need capital to collateralize Avoid until experienced See references/arbitrage_types.md for detailed examples and strategies.
Cross-Market Arbitrage
Same event priced differently across markets (not yet implemented - requires semantic matching).
Orderbook Arbitrage
Requires real-time orderbook data (homepage shows midpoints, not executable prices).
fetch_markets.py
Scrape Polymarket homepage for active markets. python scripts/fetch_markets.py --output markets.json --min-volume 50000 Returns JSON with market probabilities, volumes, and metadata.
detect_arbitrage.py
Analyze markets for arbitrage opportunities. python scripts/detect_arbitrage.py markets.json --min-edge 3.0 --output arbs.json Accounts for: 2% taker fees (per leg) Multi-outcome fee multiplication Risk scoring
monitor.py
Continuous monitoring with alerting. python scripts/monitor.py --interval 300 --min-edge 3.0 [--alert-webhook URL] Features: Fetches markets every interval Detects arbitrage Alerts on NEW opportunities only (deduplicates) Saves state to polymarket_data/
Phase 1: Paper Trading (1-2 weeks)
Goal: Understand opportunity frequency and quality Run monitor 2-3x per day Log opportunities in spreadsheet Check if they're still available when you look Calculate what profit would have been Decision point: If seeing 3-5 good opportunities per week, proceed to Phase 2.
Phase 2: Micro Testing ($50-100 CAD)
Goal: Learn platform mechanics Create Polymarket account Deposit $50-100 in USDC Manual trades only (no automation) Max $5-10 per opportunity Track every trade in spreadsheet Decision point: If profitable after 20+ trades, proceed to Phase 3.
Phase 3: Scale Up ($500 CAD)
Goal: Increase position sizes Increase bankroll to $500 Max 5% per trade ($25) Still manual execution Implement strict risk management
Phase 4: Automation (Future)
Requires: Wallet integration (private key management) Polymarket API or browser automation Execution logic Monitoring infrastructure Only consider after consistently profitable manual trading. See references/getting_started.md for detailed setup instructions.
Critical Rules
Maximum position size: 5% of bankroll per opportunity Minimum edge: 3% net (after fees) Daily loss limit: 10% of bankroll Focus on buy arbs: Avoid sell-side until experienced
Red Flags
Edge >10% (likely stale data) Volume <$100k (liquidity risk) Probabilities recently updated (arb might close) Sell-side arbs (capital + liquidity requirements)
Fee Structure
Polymarket charges: Maker fee: 0% Taker fee: 2% Conservative assumption: 2% per leg (assume taker) Breakeven calculation: 2-outcome market: 2% × 2 = 4% gross edge needed 3-outcome market: 2% × 3 = 6% gross edge needed N-outcome market: 2% × N gross edge needed Target: 3-5% NET profit (after fees)
"High edge but disappeared"
Homepage probabilities are stale or represent midpoints, not executable prices. This is normal. Real arbs disappear in seconds.
"Can't execute at displayed price"
Liquidity issue. Low-volume markets show misleading probabilities. Stick to $1M+ volume markets.
"Edge is too small after fees"
Increase --min-edge threshold. Try 4-5% for more conservative filtering.
Files and Data
All monitoring data stored in ./polymarket_data/: markets.json - Latest market scan arbs.json - Detected opportunities alert_state.json - Deduplication state (which arbs already alerted)
Telegram Integration (Future)
Pass webhook URL to monitor script for alerts: python scripts/monitor.py --alert-webhook "https://api.telegram.org/bot<token>/sendMessage?chat_id=<id>"
Position Sizing
For a 2-outcome math arb with probabilities p₁ and p₂ where p₁ + p₂ < 100%: Optimal allocation: Bet on outcome 1: (100% / p₁) / [(100%/p₁) + (100%/p₂)] of capital Bet on outcome 2: (100% / p₂) / [(100%/p₁) + (100%/p₂)] of capital This ensures equal profit regardless of which outcome wins. Simplified rule: For small edges, split capital evenly across outcomes.
Execution Speed
Arbs disappear fast. If planning automation: Use websocket connections (not polling) Place limit orders simultaneously Have capital pre-deposited Monitor gas fees on Polygon
Resources
Polymarket: https://polymarket.com Documentation: https://docs.polymarket.com API (if available): Check Polymarket docs Community: Polymarket Discord
Support
For skill issues: Check references/arbitrage_types.md for strategy details Check references/getting_started.md for setup help Review output files in polymarket_data/ Ensure dependencies installed: pip install requests beautifulsoup4
Category context
Data access, storage, extraction, analysis, reporting, and insight generation.
Source: Tencent SkillHub
Largest current source with strong distribution and engagement signals.
Package contents
Included in package
3 Docs3 Config
- SKILL.md
- references/arbitrage_types.md
- references/getting_started.md
- arbs.json
- polymarket_data/arbs.json
- polymarket_data/markets.json