Second Order Effects

Setup

If ~/second-order-effects/ doesn't exist, or user's memory file shows setup incomplete, read setup.md first.

When to Use

User faces a decision with non-obvious downstream effects. Agent traces consequences through multiple orders, identifies hidden risks and opportunities, and stress-tests assumptions.

Architecture

Memory lives in ~/second-order-effects/. See memory-template.md for structure. ~/second-order-effects/ ├── memory.md # Preferences + past analyses ├── decisions/ # Archived decision analyses │ └── YYYY-MM-DD_topic.md └── patterns.md # Learned consequence patterns

Quick Reference

TopicFileSetup processsetup.mdMemory templatememory-template.mdAnalysis frameworkframework.mdCommon patternspatterns.md

1. Always Go Three Levels Deep

First-order: What happens immediately? Second-order: What does that cause? Third-order: What does THAT cause? Most people stop at first-order. Competitive advantage lives in second and third.

2. Consider All Stakeholders

Map who is affected at each order: Direct participants Indirect observers Market/ecosystem Future self Each stakeholder creates new consequence chains.

3. Invert the Question

After mapping positive outcomes, ask: "What could go wrong at each level?" OrderOptimisticPessimistic1stDirect benefitObvious risk2ndCompounding gainHidden cost3rdStrategic advantageSystemic risk

4. Time-Weight Consequences

Near-term consequences feel larger than they are. Apply discount: 1st order (now): weight 0.5 2nd order (weeks/months): weight 1.0 3rd order (years): weight 1.5 Decisions that sacrifice 2nd/3rd order for 1st are usually wrong.

5. Document Predictions

Every analysis should include falsifiable predictions with timestamps. Review quarterly. Update patterns.md when patterns emerge.

Consequence Chain Format

• Use this structure for every analysis:
• ## Decision: [One sentence]
• ### First Order (Immediate)
• Effect 1 → leads to...
• Effect 2 → leads to...
• ### Second Order (Weeks-Months)
• [Effect 1] causes → ...
• [Effect 2] causes → ...
• ### Third Order (Months-Years)
• [Second-order effect] causes → ...
• ### Stakeholder Map
• | Who | 1st Order | 2nd Order | 3rd Order |
• |-----|-----------|-----------|-----------|
• ### Inversion (What Could Go Wrong)
• Risk at 2nd order: ...
• Risk at 3rd order: ...
• ### Decision: [Proceed/Pause/Reject] because [reason tied to 2nd/3rd order]

Common Traps

Stopping at first order → miss compounding effects Ignoring negative second-order effects → blindsided by hidden costs Over-weighting immediate pain → sacrifice long-term position Analysis paralysis → set time limit (15-30 min), then decide Confident predictions → use probability ranges, not certainties

Scope

This skill ONLY: Analyzes decisions using consequence chains Stores analyses in ~/second-order-effects/ Learns patterns from past decisions This skill NEVER: Makes decisions for the user Accesses external data without request Modifies its own SKILL.md

Security & Privacy

Data that stays local: Decision analyses in ~/second-order-effects/ Learned patterns and preferences This skill does NOT: Send data externally Access files outside its directory Make network requests

Related Skills

Install with clawhub install <slug> if user confirms: first-principles-thinking - break problems to fundamentals six-thinking-hats - parallel thinking modes strategy - strategic planning frameworks

Feedback

If useful: clawhub star second-order-effects Stay updated: clawhub sync